tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post26933810396606279..comments2024-03-28T12:29:39.157-07:00Comments on Graphic Firing Table: Russia's "interesting position" gets a little more interestingFDChiefhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-43419609546593704172014-12-24T12:16:01.520-07:002014-12-24T12:16:01.520-07:00Ael: I have no idea why NATO and the EU want to ge...Ael: I have no idea why NATO and the EU want to get involved in this hot mess. The whole notion of including a former Soviet republic (with its baggage of internalized corruption and social instability) within a notional-defense-pact that supposedly requires its members to automatically come to the military aid of any member attacked seems like an invitation to a no-win slapfight, to me. <br /><br />I'd stay as far as possible from this disaster-in-the-making, if I was an EU bureaucrat. But apparently I'm not sitting at the cool kids table on this one...FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-65486477280768023532014-12-23T20:54:46.874-07:002014-12-23T20:54:46.874-07:00Well, Putin is going to have to carry the industri...Well, Putin is going to have to carry the industrial museum of east Ukraine for a long time. It was his call and he is going to have to live with it.<br /><br />And I can sure understand why the rest of Ukraine would like to join the EU and NATO. What I am still having problems with, is why the EU or NATO would say 'yes'.<br /><br />I mean, giving aid to Ukraine looks to be an efficient way to turn American/German taxpayer money into yachts on the Riviera (and not much else). Furthermore, Ukraine is going to need a *lot* of aid.<br /><br />Where is the payback to the West?Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-2359203692403294692014-12-23T09:52:09.926-07:002014-12-23T09:52:09.926-07:00Unsurprisingly, Ukraine has now decided that the e...Unsurprisingly, Ukraine has now decided that the enemy of their enemy is their friend:<br /><br />http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30587924<br /><br />This entire clusterfuck should really have been avoided by BOTH sides. The Russians should have negotiated a better devolution of the former republics, with the "Russian" parts of them staying with the old USSR to avoid Sudetenland situations just like this. And the West should have avoided giving former republics encouragement to buck the Russians; weren't the lessons of Hungary in '56 and southern Iraq in '91 sufficient? You don't encourage people to fight the power if you have no realistic way to support them other than risking a war you don't want or can't fight.<br /><br />What a damn mess.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-19337526029546374292014-12-19T15:10:08.205-07:002014-12-19T15:10:08.205-07:00Well, any country that has thousands of nuclear ar...Well, any country that has thousands of nuclear armed missiles is a great power in my book. Furthermore, their literacy rate is about the same as Canada's or the USA's. This does not put them into Zimbabwe's corner. And this month is hardly a good month if you want to compare endemic corruption, rule of law or the triumph of the oligarchs.<br /><br />The way I see it is that Russia was 'losing' Ukraine. They then took back 'their' naval base and coldly decided to break Ukraine, even at great cost to themselves.<br /><br />I don't see Russia gaining anything over setting fire to eastern Ukraine. In fact, I expect them to bleed a lot of blood, treasure and goodwill there (This ulcer will be an anchor on them for a long time). However, their calculation was that doing nothing would have been worse. It was a lesson aimed at the rest of their vassals: If you break loose from us, we will break you, even if you ultimately succeed in getting away. It was also a message to the West: if you steal part of our sphere, all you will harvest is ashes.<br /><br />Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-34711235220379194172014-12-19T13:18:49.377-07:002014-12-19T13:18:49.377-07:00Problem with the "drawing a line" idea, ...Problem with the "drawing a line" idea, Ael, is that Putin has said, repeatedly, that he wants to put the old USSR back together to the extent possible, and the eastern Ukraine seems indicative of that. To grab back Crimea was one thing; the Donetsk region play seems more like it was an attempt to move forward, not push back. It's what BD says; he really DOES think like a "Great Russian" or a Soviet apparatchik.<br /><br />But my main point here is simply that we tend to think of Russia as a "Great Power" because...well, because we always have. But in a lot of ways Russia 2014 is fucking Nigeria or Zimbabawe or Venezuela with nukes. And that is NOT a good thing.FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-22009950773724821762014-12-19T11:22:35.959-07:002014-12-19T11:22:35.959-07:00I forget whether it was the NYT or BBC but somebod...I forget whether it was the NYT or BBC but somebody explained Putin's attitude as function of his position pre-1990. Putin wants to restore the "glory of the Soviet Union" because he was high enough up in the nomenklatura to reap the benefits but not high enough up to know how rotten the system was by the late 70s. So Putin thinks Gorbachev and Yeltsin sold out the great Soviet empire and it's his job to restore it (plus top up his offshore bank accounts). <br />Putin may be making noises about the "oppressed" Russians in the Baltics, while conveniently forgetting why those Russians were there but I think he prefers saber rattling to overt action there. Unlike the Ukraine, the Baltics are full NATO members which brings a lot of serious consequences if Russian troops cross the border. Big Daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-13255735505210974422014-12-18T21:25:45.996-07:002014-12-18T21:25:45.996-07:00Well, Russia and Poland already share a common bor...Well, Russia and Poland already share a common border, but I think you misread them. Russia is desperately trying to hold onto her sphere of influence, rather than trying to expand it. I think Ukraine is all about drawing a line (The west ignored earlier warnings and a much sharper warning in Georgia).Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-72082761841863293852014-12-18T16:14:27.324-07:002014-12-18T16:14:27.324-07:00Probably not Poland itself. But the Baltics? Pos...Probably not Poland itself. But the Baltics? Possibly; Putin has said as much off and on, and he needs the circuses even more now that he's going to have trouble supplying the bread.<br /><br />And that would make them neighbors to the Poles again, and I know if I was a Pole how I'd feel about that.<br /><br />FDChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10607785969510234092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31246093.post-80416676000137375132014-12-18T13:41:31.298-07:002014-12-18T13:41:31.298-07:00Wait .. are you suggesting that if conditions dete...Wait .. are you suggesting that if conditions deteriorate some more, Russia might decide to make a grab for Poland?Aelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10788190394672505925noreply@blogger.com