Saturday, September 02, 2023

Dictator perpetuo

 First. Sorry for the long absence. No excuses. I'm just a bad blogger.

Second, I'll try and do better.

Third...this is not really a new post. 

It's just the latest in a long string of posts that began back in 2007 - Jesus wept, that's sixteen years ago! - with this discussion of how I kept seeing echoes of the Late Roman Republic in the then-U.S.:

"A nation grown suddenly great, enlarged by war, troubled by disturbance abroad and contention at home.
A people divided, made complacent by wealth and power yet enervated by political strife and economic uncertainty.
A government given over to the wealthy, whose vicious infighting consumes their ability to make sound choices for the betterment of the People, or the nation.
A military made hard, and indifferent to democratic ideals, by decades of professionalism and unremitting war.
An economy dominated by great corporations, relentlessly pressing down the opportunities for the individual and the small company."

 My prediction for the coming years was...dark:

"Our system of government, designed for a small agrarian republic, is failing under the weight of size, wealth and power. I don't think we can reverse this cycle, this time. I think the system has broken down, overwhelmed by lucre, by fear and greed and cynicism. I think the American people have lost their zeal for liberty. I think that we are fated to decline into an increasingly turbulent diminution. I think that my children's lives will be more difficult than mine, and theirs more difficult still.

And like the Roman century left at the last frontier milecastle, sacrificed by our Emperor and ignored by our Senate, we can only hope to do our best to go down as slow as possible, die as hard as practical, before the fall of the gathering dark."

From my vantage point here, though, I don't think I was fucking dark enough.

Because I didn't anticipate this magoo:

That a massive plurality of the American public would vote for, and a series of relict institutions - that the Framers crafted to continue to ensure the political mastery of fellow rich guys long after their deaths - would empower, a sleazy nitwit real estate grifter?

Yeah, well...who the fuck would have wanted to anticipate that?

And yet. 

Here we are.

And here's where we're going:

Fucking pay attention to this. 

It's important, and it's not a coincidence or a just a casual aside or a mistake or some random Elmo outgassing. The pissy little Afrikaaner rich kid isn't just bloviating. He's a reliable peek into the wingnut MAGAt id fever-swamps, and this is 1) what they want, and 2) what they think they have with Tubby.

They see him hanging their enemies - and that's me, by the way - from his long red tie the way Sulla's troops hacked and hung their way through Sulla's enemies.

So it's a good moment to talk about ol' Sulla.

Bret Devereaux did a terrific look at the old bastard. I direct you to him; it's all worth the read but here's his nut graf:

"The real problem wasn’t the office of dictator, but the apparatus that surrounded it: the short duration of military commands, the effectiveness and depth of the Roman aristocracy (crucially undermined by Sulla and Marius) and – less discussed here but still crucial in understanding the collapse of the Republic – the willingness of the Roman elite to compromise in order to maintain social cohesion. Without those guardrails, the dictatorship became dangerous, but without them any office becomes dangerous. Sulla and Caesar, after all, both marched on Rome not as dictators, but as consuls and proconsuls. It is the guardrails, not the office, that matter."

And here's mine: Trump has already become our Sulla because he's gotten away with jumping the guardrails. 

The guardrails are already smashed. The attempt to seize power has moved one entire party to become Sulla-ites; they would choose a Caesar rather than accept defeat, so the arrival of Caesar is now only a matter of time and individual, because the GOP is willing to take power through illiberal means rather than accept any sort of United States that doesn't conform to their already-reactionary vision.

We the "liberals", the not-Sulla plurality, are still trying to pretend that these fucking MAGAts are "our fellow citizens" who just have some teensy policy differences with the rest of us, rather than a blood-hungry mob who will kill to seize power rather than consider the horrifying possibility of the existence of a ladyboy in a cocktail frock.


The only hope of avoiding that would have been that in January 2021 the entire US public and the political leaders of all varieties to have 1) turned decisively and violently - in legal terms - against Tubby's attempt at Doing a Sulla, and 2) after impeaching him prosecuting him, convicting him, and jailing him and everyone who helped him try and overturn a popular election loss.

It would have been the equivalent of the Senate and the People of Rome rising against Sulla in 83 BCE when he forced the Senate to appoint him dictator in defiance of the mos maiorum and the traditional forms of dictatorship that had worked for Rome during the Early and Middle Republic.

Would that have worked for the Romans?

Given that Sulla's troopers were out in the Field of Mars butchering thousands of people as he gently suggested that the Roman governance might be well entrusted to him?

Probably not.

But it'd have at least driven home what a chancy throw trying to Do a Sulla was.

Now?

The only way past this mess is for the Republicans to do the same; not just refuse to support but to massively, violently reject Sulla Trump and all and everything he stands for. 

Hmmmm. Let's see. How's that going, again?

WASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSF.

12 comments:

Dane900 said...

I'm feeling slightly better than I was before the 2020 election, even if that isn't saying much. I think Doug Muder is right as far as he goes - TFG needs to gain votes, and realistically he's only going to lose them (nothing will shake his cult, but they aren't a majority). The lesser worry is what happens if he loses again - Jan 7, so to speak - but even that's eased somewhat by the fact the army didn't join in last time. If the Legions stay on the side of the Republic, there's a chance.

No, the greater worry is down the road. You always described his administration as Malevolence Mitigated By Incompetence - so what happens when the next one is competent? What happens when this would-be Sulla is followed by a Caesar? And even if Caesar's coup goes awry, how much damage will be done in the meantime?

I can't answer any of that yet, but I can say this: I'm not feeling overwhelmed anymore. I'm not saying what's coming will be easy, or fun, or even bloodless if it comes to that (and I'm certainly prepared to eat these words if I turn out to be wrong - no-one can see the future after all). But all the same, it doesn't feel hopeless anymore. It can be done. The Republic's future might not be certain, but neither is its demise.

Stormcrow said...

By 2020, the Republican Party was not really a political entity at all, but a cult. The people who were writing about how it had Qanon grafted to it at the hip, 4 years ago, were absolutely correct. So there was no real way the rank and file Republicans were going to accept any other nominee.


So now we get to experience the existential horror of the 2020 election once again.


And that, after some of us are so thoroughly disgusted by the way Biden has thrown the entire population under the bus that we're seriously considering sitting out the election. His Covid policy, or rather absence thereof. It's acutely nauseating to be confronted by the man you voted for in the last election, as candidate in the next one, when he's cut the legs out from under the country you live in over the long term.

FDChief said...

I'm not so much feeling better or worse as I am resigned. The GQP is a wretched hive of scum and villainy and is only going to get worse - Empty G is only the beginning, what comes after her will be even stupider and more violent.

And, as I said, Trump is our Sulla. It's worth reading the whole Devereaux piece for the point it makes about how, while the priors were all there, it took Sulla to break through the wall of mos maiorum and set up the Empire. Before Sulla there were problems with the Republic. After Sulla the Republic was broken; it just took a Caesar to sweep the pieces away.

Trump has shown the wingnuts that the bulk of the US - the non-MAGAt public, the national press, the Democratic Party - will not stand up to them directly, will not cast them out of the public square for being the traitors to the Republic (in the sense of preferring their own victory to respecting the forms and functions of the republican system) they are.

Which means that they can, and will, push their fortunes as far as possible, as far as Trump did...and beyond; "If Sulla can, why can't I?" will be the mantra of DeSantis or Gaetz or Hawley or whoever the reactionary scum that the frothy MAGAt Right whips up the next time or the time after that. It's not that "IF" Sulla is followed by a Caesar, it's just how long until the little Republican Caesars that follow manage to eke out a win.

They'll keep coming for the Republic until they seize it.

FDChief said...

Stormcrow: I'm not sure I get it. What's the big issue w Biden and COVID. The guy has some pretty big blindspots - he's an old-school Corpora-Dem whose bones were made stanning for credit crad companies in Delaware, after all - but I wasn't aware of any monster issue with public health.

(He says having just got ANOTHER Covid booster and planning to get the new variant one ASAP...)

I ask because I think there's the genesis of a blog post there, and want to make sure I understand ou...

Stormcrow said...

I'll break this up into two replies, since the byte count flirts with the 4096 maximum.

First, the things we have learned about Covid-19 and SARS-CoV-2 most directly relevant to public health.

1. We have no hope whatsoever of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 the way we did smallpox. We probably never did.
  (i) It has multiple reservior species, some of them (whitetail deer) are quite famous by this time.
  (ii) And only one such reservior host suffices to close out that option, the same way bats did for rabies.
2. By far the most common route of transmission is virally laden aerosols produced by infected victims.
  (i) Covid is arguably the most contagious disease in human history.
3. Covid is a far better crippler than it is a killer.
  (i) The "book" CFR lies between 0.5% to 1%.
  (ii) Odds of longer term sequelae are at least an order of magnitude higher than the CFR.
4. SARS-CoV-2 enters through the lungs and the upper respiratory tract ...
  (i) but the brunt of the long term damage falls upon the cardiovascular system, the higher nervous system, and virtually every other system in the body.
  (ii) SARS-CoV-2 can infect any cell in the human body with an ACE2 receptor. Which is all of them.
5. The acute period of a Covid infection is not the period when most of the damage is done.
  (i) Long term sequelae, so called ""PASC" or "Long Covid", are the real problem.
  (ii) Precise frequency of "Long Covid" isn't clear because the precise clinical definiton isn't.
  (iii) Research puts the probability of "Long Covid" somewhere between 10% and 20% of cases.
  (iv) Cardiovascular outcomes go from blood clots up to and including heart attacks and strokes.
  (v) Neurological outcomes include physically measureable brain damage, up to and including premature dementia.
  (vi) The cardiovascular and neurological damage don't complete the picture, but those two systems are the top two that are struck.
  (vii) Odds of recovery from "Long Covid" are dreadful: only about one case in 3 recovers to something like pre-infection normality.
6. Covid's interaction with the human immune system is completely atypical.
  (i) Most viral infections are "one and done": if you survive, you're immune for life.
  (ii) This is most certainly not true of SARS-CoV-2, particularly Omicron and later variants.
  (iii) You can be reinfected multiple times, without any known upper limit.
  (iv) Cases with as many as 10 reinfections have been reported in the medical literature.
  (v) Each reinfection is another roll of the dice versus "Long Covid".
7. We do not have a vaccine which will prevent either infection or transmission. Nobody on earth does right now.
  (i) The vaccines we do have will sharply improve odds of avoiding hospitalization and other worse outcomes.
  (ii) But failure of current vaccines to prevent both primary infection and later transmission have been documented many times, going back to the first few months after initial deployment.

Stormcrow said...

Now, the collision between science and governmental policy which took place since 2021. A real trainwreck, that was.


Put reinfection and its consequences together with our present inability to either eradicate the virus or prevent transmission by pharmceutical means. 5 to 10 infections, especially pediatric infections, will probably be enough to ruin the victim.


We cannot allow this particular fire to burn unchecked. Not unless we really want to find out what an entire civilization full of permanent invalids looks like.


But our present set of pharmaceutical tools cannot control the spread of infection. This forces us to fall back upon non-pharmaceutical tools.


So we have to reduce the number of people a victim comes close to, during the period when they're shedding virus.


We also have to do everything we can to prevent aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 virus present in the environment from entering human respiratory tracts.
  1. The first best means is masking, with filtration at standards the medical community uses for protection of HCWs from highly transmissible airborne diseases.
Past this,
  2. drastically improve ventilation (i.e., air changes in heavily populated areas such as classrooms), and
  3. scrub the air in interior highly populated areas through filters that trap aerosols.


So Biden replaced Trump's CDC Director with Rochelle Walensky.


How did she attack the problem of contagious people spreading virus far and wide? By folding like a playing card when Delta CEO Ed Bastian asked her to cut the recommended quarantine period in half. Her capitulation is a matter of public record. It's still up on the Delta Airlines website. Like a trophy.


How did she attack the problem of direct protection of vulnerable respiratory systems? By rescinding the guidance that people who were vaccinated ought to remain masked in pubic spaces. And this, BTW, in May 2021, when the CDC was most certainly aware that Delta was cutting swathes through the populace in India and was just as capable of doing the same thing here.


Who did he appoint to succeed Rochelle Walensky? Mandy Cohen, a glad-hander whose professional incompetence is stunning.


Who did Biden appoint as Covid czar? Jeff Zients, whose only qualifications for the job were his proximity to Biden and his miraculous ability to "fail up", in the way that has become so hideously familiar in this country's senior oligarchs over the last 40 years.


Who did he appoint in Zients' place? Ashish Jha, whose approach to the pandemic lines up nicely with Emily Oster's. Look her up on Google, if her name doesn't ring a bell.


Meanwhile, the entire system of Covid monitoring and reporting has been systematically dismantled, at the Federal as well as the State level. Right now the only indicators we still have remaining, in some places, are limited to wastewater monitoring. Otherwise, we have nothing.


I could go on for a long long time citing direct and culpable misconduct at just about every level of the Federal government.


And most of this happened after Orange Julius was extracted, albeit unwillingly, from the White house.

FDChief said...

I should go hunt it up and find it, but the Lawyers, Guns & Money gang did a nice little recap of the public health reaction to the Spanish Flu pandemic.

Initial 1917-1918 outbreak, moderately bad flu; standard precautions.
Sometime over 1918, mutates, becomes highly lethal; strong public health response (to the degree they understood it.
1918-1919 flu season, still raging, public measures still widely employed
1919-1920 flu season - bad, not quite AS bad, but still bad...public health? Largely abandoned.

Their conclusion; "pandemics" don't end when disease recedes - they end when people get tired of changing their lives.

I don't see much difference here...and I've had this stuff AND have some "long COVID" symptoms.

But.

That has NOTHING to do with Trump as Sulla.

Yes, he grossly fucked up the pandemic, being both mean and stupid, so...horse paste and anal illumination.

But that isn't really the point of this essay.

FDChief said...

OH, wait! Okay...I got it; the whole COVID thing started in the comments. I didn't see that, my bad.

That said...frankly, the thing about the Spanish Flu "ending" when people just stopped doing anything about it? COVID is that on steroids.

I won't pretend that I think Biden and the CDC, etc., should have told the wingnuts to fucking pound sand and continue the public health measures as long as needed.

But the degree of lunacy out there is...well, pretty insane. People were actually getting shot and beat up over masking and normal, reasonable public health measures. The degree to which the Feds and the CDC could have pushed the nutjobs..? I dunno.

I mean, you're right on this bug; it's nasty and especially because we don't know the long term effects. It'd make sense, in a better world, to continue all the precautions you mention.

Given the political facts on the ground...well, you tell me. How'dya think that'd go?

Stormcrow said...

Honestly, it would not go well.

What we needed, badly, right after the WHO decided they had a real pandemic on their hands, was a Presidential speech to the public in general, along the lines of Churchill's famous address to the House of Commons in May 1940. You know the one ...

“I would say to the House, as I said to those who have joined this government: “I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.”

We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering.”


Well, that wasn't going to happen under any modern President, and particularly not under Donald Trump, the uncrowned king of malfeasance.

But part of a leader's job is to set expectations.

Anyone who'd examined the short-lived 2003 SARS epidemic in any great detail knew we were in for a very rough ride. The fact that we now had a pandemic-capable coronavirus on our hands set off the same kind of "oh shit" moment in the emerging diseases community that Hahn and Strassmann's work had set off among nuclear physicists in early 1939.

So people had to be told, so they'd know what to expect, and this simply did not happen. People were allowed to think this was nothing to be concerned about, and they acted that way right from Day 1.

By the time ERs started getting overwhelmed in fall 2020, the opportunity was already lost. The stage was now occupied by snake-oil peddlers and minimizers and antivaxxers and every other form of bullshit artist in the book.

But Biden didn't even give the problem an honest try. He just pushed the job off to incompetents like Zients and tuppeny-ante medical politicians like Walensky, and let things go straight to hell.

FDChief said...

Again...what would an "honest try" have looked like? With the entire red side of the house lined up behind idiotic anti-vaxx conspiracy nonsense?

So, no. Your first point is right, and, sadly, it DOES come back to FuckingTrump; I was all over this dumb shit back in 2020 (http://firedirectioncenter.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-blues.html):



Yep.

FDChief said...

And here's the really infuriating part.

It SO didn't have to be this way.

What's most appalling is that in this horrific disease Donald Trump and his GOP pals were effectively gifted the chance to be fucking heroes.

I mean that sincerely. They could have gone down in American history with the pantheon of men (and, unfortunately, they ARE all men...) who have saved the Republic. Washington. Lincoln. FDR.

All Trump had to do was what any sane, decent person would have done. Shut his piehole. Listened to people who knew better. Taken their advice to act quickly and competently. Spoken the words of comfort and care. Acted as Lincoln did in 1861 and FDR did in 1941. Mobilized the nation. Produced the tests, provided the ventilators, coordinated the response.

I know I keep saying this, but this was a fucking no-brainer. We've done this before, only it was Japanese, not viruses; we kick the federal money machine into action, start paying people to stay home instead of build bombers, businesses to stay shut instead of make tanks and helmets.

Freeze the nation in place until treatment, and then vaccine, came on-line.

That's it.

That's ALL.

He does that, and he's flying up there with the Greats. Twenty years after his enormous orange ass gets kicked into the hole his meatface is up there on Rushmore right next to Teddy.

But this goddamn fuckstick and his worthless fucking GOP pals couldn't do that to save their (and our) lives.

HE couldn't do it because he's a fucking rodent, and all his pizza-rat brain can manage is his own cravings; his craving for money, for power, to sate his ginormous ego.

THEY couldn't do it because they're fucking slaves, slaves to their bloated ideology where it's a Hobbesean war of all against all, where cash is king, C.R.E.A.M., baby, and it's all about punishing the darks and the bitches and the libs. They could no more act heroically than a dog could resist licking its ass.

That's just...sad.

Here these sorry bastards like to fap to their image of themselves as the latter-day Three Percent, the heroic fighting rebels who would be the first to jump to pledge their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor to the nation in time of trial.

And yet...when the trial arrived, all they could do was snivel, whine, try and grift the pandemic, punish the libs, and then celebrate by dipping their balls in the chocolate to enjoy the creamy texture.

And so here we are, ruled by the very worst among us, without any hope for reprieve.

FDChief said...

The above is from the linked post in 2020. So...yeah.

Had Trump not shown his whole fucking ass in 2020 and made masking and vaccination and closures and every other public health measure a red-versus-blue thing then Biden could now actually "give the problem an honest try" and have even a hope in Hell.

Because damn near half the country is all in "Fuck Joe Biden" and Tubby tied everything about COVID to culture war bullshit - remember when, too latte, he tried to take credit for "Operation Warp Speed" and his culties booed him? Yeah, that was precious - Biden might as well forget spending political capital on COVID now.

You're right and that's a medical shitshow.

But so is private insurance, and we've given up even trying that to because Fucking Republicans.