Thursday, November 05, 2026

Second Thoughts, Part 1: What then?

Now that I've let my inner tricoteuse out to play...

("No, no, Nanette, shush now. Oh, wait, look, you dropped a stitch. Shhhh, shhhh. It's okay. Back to your rocking chair. For now. Let's not scare the normies. It's okay. We'll talk...later.") 

...it's time to talk about boring things from the 2026 election. 

Policies. Ideas. Problems.

Let's start with this, from the reliably lefty Heather Cox Richardson:

"In their determination to stop Trump and MAGA, Americans came together across the artificial lines that Republicans have exploited for more than a generation to stand against what the nation’s founders would have called tyranny. The rural areas that have made up the backbone of MAGA support joined more Democratic urban areas to elect Democrats. (emphasis mine) The racial, gender, and cultural divisions Republicans have exploited to stay in power have collapsed in the face of a rising oligarchy."

But.

Did they?

Really? 

Here's the most recent tally from the 2026 Oregon governor's race, between incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek and perennial Republican challenger Christine Drazen:

 


There's two - two - deep blue counties; Multnomah (i.e. Portland) and Benton (which seems odd at first, given how rural Benton County is in general - until you realize that it's where Oregon State University is located, meaning it's Corvallis-the-blue-college-town and a bunch of fucking seed grass fields).

Two more are pretty blue, Washington and Hood River, being some version of Portland-bedroom-communities and Portland-adjacent sorts of voters. Soccer moms and former hipsters in Beaverton, windsurfers and craft brewers in Hood River.

Two others are fairly blue; Lane (University of Oregon in Eugene) and Lincoln (coastal cities such as Newport and Lincoln City plus a fair number of New Deal nostalgic retirees...)

Three are as pale blue as possible; Clatsop (the city of Astoria, primarily), Clackamas (bedroom communities of Portland plus probably regional hubs like Oregon City, Canby, and Molalla) and Deschutes (the city of Bend).

Everywhere else is red. Red, red, red. Anywhere from pale pink through magenta to MAGA arterial blood red. 

These places? Rural. Country as fuck. Cowshit and the cowpokes who kick it. Second Amendment absolutists. Christian dominionists. Modern country music fans, and if that doesn't scare you, nothing will.

So, two things from this.

First, no; the rural areas didn't join the urban areas to elect a Democrat governor of Oregon. The urban areas did, the rural areas said "fuck you, libtard", and - as always in Oregon politics - the urban areas are where most of the people are, so the fuck-you vote went nowhere and the Democrat got elected.

Second, that if you look at individual votes instead of just map painting, something over 700,000 of the roughly 1.5 million Oregonians whose votes have been counted, continued to support "...(t)he racial, gender, and cultural divisions Republicans have exploited".

That's just about four-and-a-half out of ten people living in Oregon who really liked what Christine Drazen offered.

And what was that?

Well, here's "The Drazen Plan" straight from the source.

Let's take just one piece of this, Drazen's "plan" for homelessness...which, if you've read this blog at all, you know I've written a fair bit about, usually discussing the difficulty of dealing with the complex causes, effects, expense, and potential possible outcomes of the whole "people living in a tent in my park" thing.

Here's Drazan's "plan" for homelessness:


Let's break this down, shall we? 

  • Fully audit homeless services and addiction spending to ensure accountability and deliver results.

    Okay. This is the usual Republican "waste, fraud, and abuse" boilerplate to convince the rubes that the problem is really just too many libtards spending tax dollars on transgender reassignment for hoboes instead of "results". 

    While I won't pretend that the current Democratic administrations are doing a terrific job - one reason that Kotek, the incumbent, did as poorly as she did this past week is the perception that the Democratic city, county, and state governments are NOT dealing with these problems well - the notion that it's because the Dems are wastefully blueing homeless funds on booze and hookers in ways Republicans wouldn't? Is nonsense and has been repeatedly, publicly shown as such. This is pure, old-fashioned Republican rube-running.
        
  • Prioritize addiction recovery, long-term sobriety and mental health treatment by focusing state resources on programs that help people achieve lasting stability.

    In itself? Fine. Is there anyone who thinks that the Kotek Plan - that is to say, what's being tried now by the city, county, and state governments - isn't already trying this? If so, I want their email, because I've got some stuff to sell them...

  • Reconnect people experiencing homelessness with their families and communities whenever possible, helping restore the support systems that can lead to long-term stability.

    This is a long-time Republican canard. It varies between two versions.

    One is a legitimate "try-and-get-individuals-to-help-this-or-that-homeless-person" which, while not ridiculous on its face, ignores the reality that a huge majority of the truly unhoused homeless people (the RV hoboes, the tent campers, the guy-in-a-blanket-wandering-downtown-Portland) have burned through all of their "support systems" - family, friends, churches, hospitals, clinics - couch-surfing, subletting, in- and out-patient treatment, food banks, shelters - before finally exhausting all of them.

    The other is a cynical "buy-the-hobo-a-bus-ticket-out-of-town" kick the hobo down the road ploy. Enough said about that.

  • Support law enforcement and restore public safety by fully funding state police and allowing local jurisdictions to clean up public spaces to help make Oregon's communities livable.

    "Throw the smelly hoboes in jail"? Oh, sure. We've never tried criminalzing homelessness before...oh, no, wait, we have, but I'm sure that'll work this time.

  • Increase penalties for drug traffickers who are exploiting addiction.

    "Let's do the War on Drugs only harder"? Oh, sure. We've never tried...oh, fuckit, just see above.

  • Reform rules and grant requirements to shift state investments to recovery-focused programs and homeless services.

    "Reduce burdensome regulations" Hmmm...now where have I heard that before?
     
  • End taxpayer funding for programs that enable addiction and instead invest in approaches that promote recovery, accountability and lasting change.

    This is Drazen's people coming down on the opposite side of the "housing first" people. 

    This is a genuine and legitimate division in the "homeless solution" community and Drazen is picking a side. 

    On the one hand, there's some evidence that the commonsense idea of getting people into some sort of legit living space complete with heat, light, running water, etc, should be the first step to helping them out of trouble, and then try and fix the mental/emotional health or addiction issues. 

    On the other, the experience of the "housing first" approach has been that it often winds up putting people who can benefit from this - which is to say people who have physical health problems or are just flat broke - in places (specifically apartments or small communities) with people who are seriously fucked up; junkies, psychos, and the crooks that prey on them and from there to the non-fucked-up people nearby.

    I honestly don't know if there's a black-and-white division here. I see the issues with both approaches. 

    "Housing first" does risk the inevitable problems of putting me - who has lost his house because of Parkinson's expenses and poverty - next to this guy, "Gary O'Connor"; illiterate, probably some sort of fetal-alcohol-syndrome/ADHD victim, addict, burglar, who's gonna scare me shitless and steal my (and everyone else's) stuff. 

    But how can I, or anyone, move past illness or injury or addiction or poverty, if my most immediate concern is not dying of cold or heat or hypothermia in the driving rain?

    Frankly, the real elephant in the room that this whole housing-vs-treatment-first issue is that the only real way to resolve it is to 1) get people housed, then 2) throw an insane amount of time and money at them because to make that work requires practically a full-time hobo nanny for every Gary O'Connor. Fixing his broke ass so he doesn't steal from me and scare me shitless (or piss me off) enough to where I put a bullet in him.

    There's no money for that now and Drazen has no "plan" to raise that money, so her coming down on "treatment first" rather than "housing first" is just the usual Republican arm-waving bullshit.

  • Declare a state of emergency on Oregon's addiction and mental health crises to bring greater urgency and coordination to the state's response.

    And...then what? Nuke the hoboes from space? WTF? G'wan, get outta here.

It's all like this.

So what the Republican candidate for Oregon governor offered - purely aside from any connection with Trump and MAGAtry - was the usual GOP boilerplate. Magical "solutions" to social and political problems that boiled down to 1) lower taxes, 2) less "regulation", and 3) magic.

Seriously. That was it. The same old GOP song except without ICE dragging abuela out of the bodega or bombing Iran.

And 2/5ths of the Oregon public, the vast majority of them rural or rural-ish (there's a reason that us Portland communists call Clackamas County the "ungovernable tribal region" of Oregon...), are all in on that. 

How the hell do you turn this into Richardson's insistence that this election meant "...a rejection of the Republican ideology that has driven American politics since the 1980s: the idea that some people are better than others and have the right to rule."

From where I'm sitting it still looks like some 40-plus percent of my "fellow Oregonians" are just fine with that idea. 

That looks to me like a really huge fucking problem.

 


Next up: Okay, smartass, what do you DO about that problem? 

Wednesday, November 04, 2026

First thoughts on the Morning After

My dear Democratic elected officials:

So. Here's the thing.

I - we, many, many of us who voted you in - didn't give you this power, this chance, to "do policy".

We didn't hand you the tools of governance for "comity", "reconciliation", "moving forward", or "reaching across the aisle".

We want heads.

We want fucking heads.

On pikes, on fenceposts, in baskets. 

We want skins tacked up on walls and blood trails dragged off into the darkness the way their fucking ICE goons dragged off our brothers and sisters.

We want torches. We want pitchforks. We want to sit at the foot of the national razor knitting and grinning as the skulls come bouncing down like a rain of Republican tears.

Okay. Now. Once the tattered corpses of human twatmites like Whiskey Pete Hegseth, Brainworm Bobby Kennedy, Nosferatu Steve Miller, Couchfucker Vance, each, every, and all of these Nazi scum have been dragged off by the heels, every bit of sheetrock from the fucking ballroom has been shoved up Trump's capacious ass, every stick of the goddamn border wall, every blueprint for The Arch de Trump put in the burn bin?

We can talk legislation.

Until then, not one moment's peace. Not a second's respite. As an accomplished slayer of an earlier generation of traitors remarked:

"War is the remedy that our enemies have chosen, and I say let us give them all they want."

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

A Failure of Imagination

A friend gifted me the book The Hour of Land, by Terry Tempest Williams.


It's an impassioned work of unabashed love for the wild places, in this particular case the wild that has been bounded within the national park system of the United States. The book includes Williams' exposition of, ruminations on, and adoration for thirteen national parks, ranging from Gettysburg battlefield to the Gates of the Arctic, as well as her advocacy of, as she describes it;

"...a different kind of conversation so that our public lands are seen as out public commons, instead of the seedbed of rancor and violence."

Williams, as a writer, explodes off the page in bursts of passion, poetry, and enthusiasm. She very clearly inspired by these places, and the other untamed lands she describes. "Language and landscape are my inspiration." are her very first words, and through the pages her devotion to the preservation, not just of these delineated spaces but of all the unpaved, unlogged, unmined, unbuilt places, shines like a good deed in a weary world.

It is also a very, very sorrowful work.

Because Williams' invocation of "conversation" and "collaboration" as central, as essential, to the integration of these beloved wild places into the national imagination, the lives and works and beliefs of the people of the United States, is a painful reminder of the complete and utter popular failure of the "environmental movement" in the 20th Century United States.

In my lifetime I've seen three great public or popular movements fail. 

Each one began with promise, with hopes of a better nation, dreams of a better people. Each one died in recrimination, dispute, and disunion, leaving the nation, instead, a more bitter, more divided, more impoverished, and more angry place.

Perhaps the most fraught and difficult of the three was also the most ambitious; civil rights. 

The failure to truly re-found the United States as a nation of equal justice under law, to undo the centuries-long legacies of the "original sins" of the founding - genocide and slavery (and the racial hatred that underlay them both) - has left all the marks that the acts that sprang from those beliefs unchanged, and the damage and destruction they spawned as toxic and divisive as ever.

Or increasingly more so. 

We the People are who we are because in many ways we are still the people our forefathers were. Their strengths are still our strengths...but their evasions, and cowardice, and wrongdoing are still deeply ingrained within us, too, and much of our present Troubles spring from the forehead of our past misdeeds.

That, frankly, is too fraught and difficult to encompass in a blog post. I want to return to it.

But not today.

The second was Occupy. 

For perhaps four years - from the Great Recession of 2008 to the final desuetude and dispersal of the "Occupy Wall Street" and associated encampment/protests in 2011 - there seemed to be a genuine opportunity to really, seriously consider whether it was a good idea to return the United States to the economic, political, social, and moral ethos of the original Gilded Age.

I wrote several posts about the failure of that opportunity; here, here, here, here, and, finally, here. 

I can't really describe the loss that this failure means any better than I did thirteen years ago:

"Occupy lost it's momentum and has already faded into insignificance.

Which in my opinion will be remembered as a tragedy. The Occupiers had one burning insight; that from the mildly benign oligarchy it had been from 1932 to the late 1970s the U.S. is rapidly becoming a predatory toxic oligarchy through the rapaciousness of its oligarchs. This insight was lost in the foolish cacophony of noise the Occupiers generated and the criminally negligent reportage of the courtier press. I believe that we will one day regret that we did not pay more attention to the rise of the modern aristos.

The result has been a continued slide back to the rampant inequality and social division of the Gilded Age, with the concurrent erosion of the sort of stodgy bourgeois middle-class attitude of the "rest" of the U.S. public as it sees it's decent-wage jobs, it's pensions, it's influence, and it's security ever more crammed down and eroded away. Combine that with the overwhelming sense that gold now makes the rules and that the reopening of government to massive inflows of cash has made individual voting almost meaningless and you get a public that seems to me daily more vulnerable to a demagogue, a "man on horseback" that promises to make those changes that they can't."

And, of course, now He Has Risen:

We've already talked way too much about the ignorant bastard. 

This, then, is the third "great failure". 

The inability of the American environmentalists - to lump everyone from John Muir through Edward Abbey and Teddy Roosevelt to Tempest Williams in a basket with that label - to convince the American public that the preservation, protection, and expansion of those parts of their own nation (let alone other people's nations, or parts of the world that aren't "nations" in the Westphalian meaning of the term) which aren't already paved, built-over, drilled, mined, logged, farmed, or in other ways "no longer truly wild" is important. A critical public good. An imperative that should be among the first and most important considerations of any and every piece of public business.

Williams published this work in 2015, after nearly eight years of the Obama presidency, in a moment of what I'm sure felt like a triumph for environmentalism, but now feels like a high water mark, the socio-political equivalent of the copse of trees at the crest of Cemetery Ridge where the environment and its defenders found that the battle had not only not been won, but that they were not just going to lose but in many ways would be routed and destroyed.

Williams just can't see that coming. 

Instead, Williams name-checks all the lineages that run through the literature and history of the United States environmentalism ("environmentally-concerned", or whatever you want to call people whose ideal is "let's not just fucking pave everything, okay?"); Muir and Abbey who we've already mentioned, Wallace Stegner, August Wilson, Rachel Carson, Wendell Berry, scientists like John Wesley Powell, politicians such as Roosevelt and Sally Jewell and Lady Bird Johnson and Barack Obama, wealthy philanthropists like John D. Rockefeller, as well as dozens of individual activists, public commentors, leaders of everything from native tribal groups to "monkey-wrenching" eco-warriors such as someone named Tim DeChristopher, who briefly gimmicked a BLM oil and gas lease auction in 2008.

She does this to try and center the wild places, and those who love and protect them, deep in the heart of the American story. The intent, clearly, is to make a case for the centrality of that, and them, and a rallying call for the public to join her. To start that "different kind of conversation" with the people she calls out from the other side. The Cliven Bundys, the Dick Cheneys, and the George W. Bushes.

Trump? Holy Hell did she not see that fat fucker coming. 

The prose is beautiful, the descriptions lovingly crafted, the care and hope luminous...and all it does is kindle a bright light that shines past her, casting the immense and nearly complete shadow of failure of her cause to create a response, even the most tepid and cautious response, from the damned U.S. public.

Couple of things first, though. 

Through the tales Williams' scholarship (or historical knowledge, or whatever you want to call it) or lack of same or, worse, evasion thereof, bugged the shit out if me. It's deeply uneven, sometimes lacking, and in several places it's apparently willful blindness is frankly unsettling.

The one that really jumps out at me is Williams' hagiography of the Rockefeller clan.

This crew is tongue-bathed twice - more than anyone mentioned outside of Abbey, perhaps - once for the old man, John "the public be damned" D's gift of the properties that became a large piece of Acadia National Park in Maine, the other for a similar donation of land by his son and grandson in an area near Yellowstone NP that became "Grand Teton NP".

The rapacious economic life of the plutocratic sonofabitch is never really dragged into the light, and the Gilded Age greed that piled up the cash that bankrolled him, his progeny, and their philanthropy isn't so much as mentioned during the discussion of, say, the carriage roads his wealth carved into Mt. Desert Island and that now are such a symbol of Acadia.

The other is the gloss sprayed over Cesar Chavez' rule of the UFW, eliding entirely the weird Syanon power games he demanded of his staff, as well as Chavez' personal inability to resist putting his chayote in women who worked for him. 

That's a problem.

Because there aren't "heroes" in the fictional sense in real life. There's just people. Flawed ones who can do great science, or make great art. Kind, loving ones who can go to work and do horrific things to others they don't see as "us". To write a paean to Rockefeller, or Chavez, and fail to accept and acknowledge their darknesses? 

At best that's poor writing. 

But that failure pales beside the greater misunderstanding of how completely Williams, like so many of the other mid- and post-mid-century environmentalists, misunderstood how people are.

Which goes back to the genesis of this post, the oddball comment on the previous one, about how the real reason that the global "public" didn't and doesn't rise up in righteous anger at the plutocrats, oligarchs, corporations, and bureaucrats that have and are enabling anthropogenic climate change is because of some black-helicopter/conspiracy-theory brainwashing and/or propaganda and/or bribery and/or something else utterly bizarre and nefarious.

The wild lands? Why aren't all the Good People of Earth defending them? After all, these are, Williams insists, sacred spaces. Liminal. Transcendent. Deeply entwined in humanity, links between that humanity and every other living thing. 

We the People - all people - need these wild, unbroken lands.

And that has been the "message" of environmentalism ever since I was a kid in school singing along with Woodsy the Owl.


Woodsy was one of the more public "faces" of what I understand is now often referred to as "the second US environmental movement", the rapid growth in the public presence of concern for what at the time (the Sixties and Seventies) felt like a cascade of horrific bad news about the poisoning of the soil, air, and water across the country.

That the industrialization of the United States had generated a hell of a lot of nasty shit is hardly surprising. That's what the mines and factories and farms did; took materials and made (or grew) other things from them, and then (since the people who owned and ran those factories and farms weren't in business to make the place nice if it cost them money to do that) dumped whatever shit they couldn't use or sell.

Into the nearest hole in the ground. Or lake. Or river. Of, well, fuck, in some poor sonofabitch's backyard if there was nowhere else.

The fun that all the things that the factories and mines and farms gave to Americans meant that they (mostly) ignored all the toxic shit that was in the country all around them.

But the 1960s the bill for all this started to come due.

Rivers caught fire. Toxic air started choking people. Toxic soil, or toxic substances barely covered with soil (Love Canal says hi!) started poisoning people. Drill rigs blew out and vomited crude all over pretty beaches where rich people liked to play.

And, finally, all this nasty shit made people - ranging from the poor powerless schlubs who'd had to live in this toxic stew to the wealthy and powerful and politically connected - begin to worry.

The first "Earth Day" was April, 1970.

The rest of the Seventies were a big time for "environmental" legislation and action in the U.S., which included introducing kids like me to Woodsy and his tree-hugging pals. That's how I remember the "environmental movement"; a singing dancing cartoon character who told me that I needed to pack my trash out of the woods and recycle my pop cans. 

What was going on around me while I was too young to understand it was a mad-minute-decade of environmental actions by the federal government.

The Clean Air Act had been passed a decade earlier (1963). But in the Seventies we got:
The Clean Water Act (1972)
Establishment of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1970)
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (1976)
Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (1980)
Establishment of human health and safety rules and organizations like OHSA (1970)
Endangered Species Act (1973)
Safe Drinking Water Act (1974)
Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (1977)

And then in January 1980 all that effectively came to a halt, because...


...yeah. That fucking guy.

Reagan's election meant the beginning of a now-forty-plus-year era when all the powers that hated the limits and restrictions and costs that required them to not buy, borrow, steal, or shit all over the non-paved (and much of the developed!) parts of the U.S. were back in the saddle with the Hollywood cowboy.

It's instructive to note that the bespectacled little gonif behind Reagan is the poster boy for the GOP's rape-the-Earth-First religion; James Watt, Ronbo's Secretary of the Interior, who saw his job as shoveling as much of the Interior to his and Ronnie's and every GOP cracker's pals as fast as he could.

(Oh, here's a funny paleoGOP/Watt anecdote. His greedy ass got canned because in September 1983 he stood up in front of the business boys of the US Chamber of Commerce and said "I have a black, a woman, two Jews and a cripple. And we have talent." That, in 1983, would get you fired. In 2026? Fuck, you'd probably bag a Presidential Medal of Freedom...)

So after 1980 the environment and environmentalism was on the outside, fighting a defensive battle. When Democrats would get power the wild land partisans would push back...only to lose ground again when the GOP got back in.

From that point the only way to prevent that would have been for the goddamn U.S. public to have been so thoroughly Woodsy-fied that any public attempt to reduce or evade environmental protections would have produced a massive electoral disaster for the authors.

That didn't, and hasn't, happened.

Why?

Here's my theory.

First, on "the environment" the public in general is now, and was, very much as the current voting patterns define it, and that set the task the environmental movement needed to accomplish. About a third is okay with environmental rules and law, anywhere from hardcore Earth First to "well, I'm driving a Prius and I recycle, so yay. me, right?". 

Another third is some form of "drill, baby, drill", ranging from the practical users-of-land-for-commercial-gain - everyone from workaday miners to ranchers to real estate developers - through the politically "conservative/Wise Use" types through to the pure wingnut "solar-is-for-pussies" and Bundyesque public-land-thievery goofballs. 

And there's some remnant lump in the middle, that's too ignorant to understand and too lazy and/or stupid to learn about the issues.

Meaning that to make environmentalism partisan-voting-proof you'd need to assemble and sustain a solid block of both the left and middle thirds, and probably need to peel off some of the more reasonable of the land-users.

Second, the mainstream U.S. environmental movement didn't succeed in doing that. Largely, I think for several reasons.

One is that the public at large wasn't, and isn't, emotionally (or economically, or politically) invested in the preservation, let alone expansion, of the wild lands. We as a society, and most people as individuals, live in towns and cities. To even get to those wild places, like the national parks treasured by Williams, takes time, effort, and money that many Americans don't have, or don't prefer to spend on a day gazing at or hiking Yosemite Valley as opposed to, say, hitting the rides at Disneyland.

Many people vaguely like the idea of scenic mountains and forests. But the connection is pretty vague for most of us. We don't live there and, frankly, most people find true wilderness kind of scary. Even the manicured "wilderness" of the national parks can seem inhospitable to a society that thinks of food as something that comes from the Safeway and shelter as a two-story townhouse.


Park Service studies suggest that something like 95% of visitors to Yellowstone never wander more than a half-mile or so from their car or RV.

But even many of us who do make that escape don't share the emotional level of commitment needed to push preservation of the environment to the front of the political business line. As a geologist, as a birder, as a GI, I've spent many, many days in the "outdoors", ranging from backlots to truly wild places. Many of the things I do, much of what I love, depends on keeping those places as unaffected by human civilization as possible.

And yet, I don't feel any of the "magic" that Williams describes and that is a large part of similar nature writing. To me the "outdoors" is a combined living room, kitchen, playroom, bedroom, and toilet. It's just a place; a beautiful place I love to visit...but that transcendent joy, that sense of living in those places? I don't feel it. That isn't a good lever to move me, and, I assume, many of those like me. Show me real, practical, everyday benefits? Sure! But pulling the "emotion" string? No.

That makes "wilderness" as a political good a hard sell. Because...

The other is that, like Williams, many of the most impassioned and visible defenders of the wild land are deeply invested in those places, and don't seem to understand precisely how difficult a sell that is to those who are not. The tone of The Hour of Land feels as though Williams believes that just by describing these places, their beauty and power, the readers will be energized to fight for them, to, let's not kid ourselves, make some kinds of sacrifice for them, and that's the really big ask.

Truly preserving the wild lands, the endangered species, means that industrial civilization has to take, or be forced to take, a step back. Everything from CAFE standards to hydropower dams to stuff as silly as paper-versus-plastic drinking straws means that someone, sometime, will have to be forced or encouraged (or a bit of both) to relinquish some thing or activity they want or want to do. 

The reality of that makes it simple for anti-environmentalists like Reagan and Watt and the Bushes and Trump to sell that uncommitted third-of-the-public that "those whacky tree-huggers" want to take your plastic straws, hamburgers, coal-roller, airplane travel, snowmobiles...whatever they can sell as something that would be limited by solar power or roadless areas or transgender...okay, well, whatever the "Left" finds appealing.

And, since as noted above, few outside the hardcore enviro faction have that deep emotional connection for the "wild places", whether it's Bears Ears or the local park, that's a damn difficult hill to fight on.

(And here I note that a huge part of the 2026 problem - compared to 1970 - is that environmentalism is hindered by its own success.

In 1970 many Americans knew of some sort of revolting, dangerous, dirty, generally-fucked-up mess made by business or farming or industry. Rivers were on fire, for fuck's sake! The LA basin was a choking cloud of "smog" as tailpipe gases and industrial emissions combined to make breathing difficult.

Now? When was the last time you saw anything like that? The legacy of the environmental regulations of the Sixties and Seventies means that in the Twenties We the People just don't think of "environmental protection rules" as things that keep our air breathable and water drinkable.

So we, as a society, as a nation, aren't particularly arsed to defend them when somebody who can make a buck fucking up the air, water, or soil comes around with a bagful of cash to buy some government.)

 
And here we are.

The current crop of fascist and Nazi-adjacent MAGAts is exceptionally vile on "the environment"...but as a matter of degree, not of basic beliefs. As we've discussed, the notion that the world around us is here for humans to grab whatever we can however we can, regardless of how fucked up that leaves whatever the grabbers leave behind them has been a fairly broad "conservative" ideal since...well, since at least the days of John D. Rockefeller and Drew Carnegie and Companies, if not all the way back to 1492.

I mean...the white folks that arrived in the hemisphere weren't here to set up drum circles and meditate on the beauty of nature, right? 

In the words of the song...

"The great nations of EuropeHad gathered on the shoreThey'd conquered what was behind themAnd now they wanted moreSo they looked to the mighty oceanAnd took to the western seaThe great nations of Europe in the sixteenth century
Hide your wives and daughtersHide your groceries tooGreat nations of Europe coming through."

Is there any way out of this?

Sure.

Is it quick, or simple, or easy, or cheap, or painless?

No.

And, if the past forty-odd years have taught us anything, it's damn deadly difficult to get humans in a group to do anything important if it's long, complex, difficult, expensive, and punitive...even when they're not a mob of greedy bastard.

So...yeah. There are days when, even though I'm not utterly hopeless, I just feel like...

 


...we are soooooooooooo fucked. 

Thursday, October 08, 2026

The time that is given us...

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. 

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”


The graph above shows the average ocean temperature from roughly the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (about 66 million years before present) through the middle Eocene, roughly 45 mybp. 

 This geologic period is a contradictory and, to some degree, still confusing one. Global climate at the end of the preceding Mesozoic had been relatively warm and moist; think "dinosaur jungle", you get the idea. 

Then came Death From Above...

...and the world changed.

Among the changes (and, probably, a huge reason for them) were the second most recent of the immense "mass extinction" events that have swept the planet's biota clean, and a long-term change in the climate that made the planet drier and cooler. 

But before it started cooling the planet got considerably warmer. In general - notice the "hill" that starts around 57-59 mybp - this meant a fairly gradual increase in global average temperature that peaked some time near about 52-50 mybp, then from there the climate average began to decline to where we start to see the ginormous "continental glacier" formation around the end of the Pliocene/beginning of the Pleistocene about 1.8mybp. Hello, ice age!

But this climate trendline wasn't entirely gradual. 

The spikes on the ridgeback of the trendline that show up around 55.8mybp? There are known as "hyperthermals" and are described in the Wiki entry as:

"...geologically brief (<200,000 year) events characterized by rapid global warming, major changes in the environment, and massive carbon addition...and stand(s) out as a major change in the lithologic, biotic and geochemical composition of sediment in hundreds of records across Earth."

This, the "Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", or PETM, is important to understand today because, as its Wiki entry says;  

"The PETM arguably represents our best past analogue by which to understand how global warming and the carbon cycle operate in a greenhouse world."

Which brings us to what I want to talk about.

 

I've railed in this blog about human foolishness, and, often, the foolishness of the particular humans who have been placed in charge here in the United States. A lot. If you're still here surely you know that.

War. Economics. Non-alcoholic beer. Sex, including procedures, physical form, and body hair.

If a person, or people, can fuck any or all of that of in ways that make life more fucked up for other people (who didn't do anything to help out, or even fought against the fucker-uppers) I've often had some pretty scathing comments about them, and the fucking-up they did.

This, though?  

This is, in my opinion, the single biggest, most grave, most dangerous, and most imperative test presented us humans during the Anthropocene; "anthropogenic climate change".

The fundamentals are simple and obvious.

Since the origins of human civilization; first agriculture, and then, increasingly, industrialization, We the People of Sumer, Rome, the US, &c, have been adding much the same chemicals to the global environment as nature did in the early-to-mid Eocene. Mostly carbon dioxide - the CO2 level shown graphically above - but with a side order of everything from methane, freon, nitrogen...you name it, we've made it. And let it go, into the ground, the water, the air.

It doesn't take a goddamn genius to figure out that if spontaneously-occurring high level releases of natural carbon dioxide could help produce the PETM spike in global temperature, then human-caused released of the same gas could, and most likely would, have the same effect.

The huge, horrific difference?

We - humanity in general - have absolutely no fucking idea what effect a similar rapid spike in average global temperature could, or will, do.

And yet...

The climatology isn't questionable. There's more CO2 in our atmosphere now that there has been in the Pleistocene. Ever. Because, well, duh; we're burning more of everything, starting with wood, then coal, the petroleum. The Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions were televised in the form of the grossly changing picture of atmospheric carbon dioxide shown above. 

Okay, so. First, yes, there has been that much CO2 in the atmosphere in the geologic past. And. The effect of that CO2 has always been the same; a rise in average global temperature. The effects of those temperature spikes have been all over the place; some seems to have come and gone with little or no permanent impacts.

Others? Mass extinction. Biological diversity (both reduction and/or punctuated evolution). Oceanic current changes. 

What will the Anthropocene Thermal Maximum do? I haven't the slightest fucking idea.

Will it do...something? Lots of somethings, probably? Changes in local climate, changes in global stasis like sea levels? Changes in habitability (you think summers in Phoenix suck now..?) or agricultural production or disease or...keep going, I'm sure we can think of more.

 But, unless you're a complete moron or a Republican (but I repeat myself...) there's no way to deny or refute that:

1) Human civilization is producing and releasing CO2 at levels not seen before during the existence of homo sapiens, and

2) That's going to change our world. A lot. And,

3) We (that is, humanity in toto) have known #1 and #2 for at least the past forty to seventy years.

Meaning that we've had our opportunity to "do something" about that. Either...

Alter #1. 

Or prepare for #2.

Or some combination of both. 

And have "we"? Fuck all no, we haven't. 

Largely because, frankly, we as individuals and in a group as societies don't have any real sense of urgency about it. Because "altering #1" would mean substantial - and, largely, unpleasant - changes to our industrial societies, and "preparing for #2" would mean somewhat similar changes that those societies don't really understand, or have any deep concern about, as well as requiring a metric assload of money that we'd rather spend on fifth-generation fighter aircraft and outdoor grills or what have you.

Throw in the fundamental problem that, in most non-dictatorial political systems, voluntarily choosing those sorts of drastic present actions (and costs) to (possibly) avert or (probably at least) mitigate the worst of future problems is damn near impossible.

You're asking me to stop eating salmon and running the airconditioning and dump my Chevy Nova and start walking or cycling or riding a train or bus everywhere? Because it's possible - or even probable - that fifty years from now (after I'm long dead) that the Portland area will be a toxic malarial fever swamp uninhabitable in August?

How the hell do you convince me to vote for that?

(Dictatorial systems, on the other hand, just flat out won't do those things, simply because the dictator(s) have, by the very nature of the system, to plan for the short term. The premier or president-for-life or mullah or Donald Trump can't be sure that the regime will survive him (or is very sure it won't, or, because they're a vicious, ruthless, dictatorial bastard, doesn't care...) so why waste the opportunity to steal everything now to prepare for, or avert, some future disaster.

Christ, fucking Trump & Co. couldn't even foresee the predictable result of starting another goddamn war in Southwest Asia! Climate change? Even if they were canny enough to believe it they'd fuck up the response to it...)

Anyway, as we've shown, we human can't do anything that is going to change our power-drive towards PETM 2; Global Boogaloo.

 Or won't. Or have tried and failed. But, honestly?

We haven't tried very hard.

So, instead, we've failed the great test that was set before us. 

"It" - the most important deliberate choices we as a species were presented with in human memory - is, indeed happening in our time. And as a species, we have "decided to do"...

Effectively, nothing.

And, well...

 


Yep. Pretty much. 

What a fucking fuckstory. But that's how people are, innt? 

In some ways we haven't really evolved all that much, now, have we? 

Monday, October 05, 2026

The first of the last of the Sixties

Yesterday was the first day of my 69th trip around the sun.

 
At almost threescore years and ten birthdays are, well, kind of a mixed blessing - at best.

Making it to another year is fine. It beats the living Hell out of the alternative. But it's a reminder that my remaining time on Earth is fleeting, and that I now have some kind of serious malfunction inside my head that is killing me, and will, eventually, dispose of me in a really fucking nasty way; Parkinsonsism (or whatever you want to call it) is a damn hard way to go.

And yesterday was, even as sexagenarian birthdays go, just pretty sad.

Woke up late - one irritating Parkinson's effect is messing with sleep, and I had a bad night - so slept through my usual Sunday kendo. I didn't have any particular other thing I could think of that I wanted to do, so, despite it being a sunny day, I didn't do much of anything. I'm plowing through a good book ("Cold Iron", by Miles Cameron; fun swashbuckling swords-and-sorcery novel), so I spent a fair amount of that time reading, which was fine but, y'know, lonely.

I splurged on a damn fine dinner - grass-fed rib-eye and new asparagus in garlic butter, with a malty Oktoberfest - but ate it alone. I thought about going out for a high-end restaurant meal but that seemed even sadder than cooking and eating a meal by myself.

 
In the dark of late evening I couldn't help but look at where I stand.

In my life to date I've tried to be a good citizen, a good soldier, a good scientist, a good husband, a good father, and a good friend.

To my credit I think I was, indeed, a very good soldier and a damn fine professional geologist. I was as good a citizen as I could be, though I now regret not being more trouble for the Republican sonsofbitches that led my nation, and especially my Army brothers, into wars we couldn't, and didn't win (while in the process wrecking a damn sight of Southwest Asia as well as our own supposedly-sacred national honor).

I've tried to be a good friend. And I've tried, and am trying, to be a good father.


Sadly, to my shame, in one of the great trials of adult life I have failed. 

Failed to be, in the end, a good husband. A caring partner, a gentle and caressing lover, a fierce advocate, and loving friend. Twice now a good woman has looked hard at me and found me utterly wanting.

That's...indescribably painful.

My marriage of more than twenty years is over. Done, dust and ashes, and I can't help but feel like what was and should have been one of the great works of my life was a failure of crushing weight. That the grief of, and the grieving for, that loss will be with me, mark me, until the Parkinson's finally does it's work and relieves me of the remorse.

The thing is that tomorrow is...a day. Ending in "y". So I've got work to do, words to write, children to worry about and encourage, hobbies to putter with, Republicans to kill (okay, well, no...but that should be on the menu; these fucksticks are more worthless than plague rats and twice as big a nuisance), every little thing that makes daily living so busy.  

 I'm old. And alone. That's not a complaint; that's just the reality.

 
But I'm not dead. Not yet.

And while I'm not, well, tomorrow I'll do what I've tried to do for the past sixty-nine years and a day; shrug my ruck on, settle the weight across my shoulders, look up from under my helmet brim, and move out towards whatever the objective of that day might be. Embrace the suck. Deal with it.

That doesn't sound like a cheerful sort of way to greet each day, does it?

Fuck, no. I'm a sergeant; expecting the shit rain to fall is what we do, because we're the ones who have to figure out a way to work those troubles out. Cheerful ain't what I do.

But, goddamn it, I've tried to do the best I could.

And for now?

 
That'll have to do. 

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Fragment from "The Lament of the Staff Geologist", circa 2026

At 4am the clicks and buzzes of the front door lock sound like digital complaints about an analog world.


Street black ice under the sleepless lamps while in the near distance something is humming like a half-forgotten memory.

 
Wakefulness in cardboard, dark as the pre-dawn highway. 

Beyond, the mountains rise with the sun into the mist over the Santiam. Over the Luckiamute, over the Umpqua, over the clearcut-quilted hillsides rising above all the vanquished names. 

 


Something is burning in the valley beyond. White smoke rises like regret only to disappear into the morning haze.

 


There's a high school football game  in Myrtle Creek this coming Friday.

 


As the uncaring traffic rushes past. 

 

--------------- 

(I've been picking up some contract work down in Douglas County. For some reason this stuck in my head, so now it's here. I've got a bit more thought to set down, so back in a bit.) 

Friday, August 21, 2026

Today in "No, duh..!"

The Center for American Progress takes a deep dive into the crime rate stats and finds that sending a bunch of part-time GIs to amble around several urban areas in CONUS has - wait for it - no effect on civil crime.


Yeah, yeah, I know. I hear that there also might just possibly be gambling going on at Rick's Cafe' American.

Shocked, I tell you. 

Here's the two most fucked up things about this.

1) It's about as surprising as discovering that the dog licks its balls.

As I keep hammering away in this place; fucking cops, actual civilian cops that get paid to supposedly crush crime, don't really do jack shit about crime other than nibble around the edges of it. They don't generally stop crime. They don't really solve crimes, either. Not very much, not for the most part, not in any sense that justifies the amount of money and attention we give them.

They're not entirely worthless. But there's simply not enough of them, they're not good enough at what they do, to keep "crime" within below-civilization-ending levels were most regular people not fairly decent, law-abiding citizens.

Crime is not "exploding" not because of cops, but despite them. 

So how in the hell are a bunch of part-time PAC clerks, diesel mechanics, mortar maggots, and five-ton drivers in tree suits gonna change that?

When this nonsense started a year ago I wrote;

“What, exactly, are all these GIs going to actually do? These aren't civil cops. They're Joe and Molly, weekend warriors, cooks, bakers, mechanics, grunts, MPs, PAC clerks. You don't enforce law with fucking PAC clerks, you fill in forms. So...what? What are all these GIs shambling around the Tidal Basin doing? They're on our fucking taxpayer dime, so I'd sure like to know if my money is being wasted on the military equivalent of a multi-million dollar gold-encrusted fucking ballroom." 

Turns out the answers are "not a fucking thing" and "a lot of money". Surprise! 

2) That the nitwit Trumpkins are whining and flailing and screeching about this.

If you want you can chase the first link and read the CAP report. I don't advise it. 

As a piece of public policy it's rubbish. Difficult to read and larded with the sorts of "facts and data" that the sorts of people who enjoy this sort of thing enjoy writing. The prose itself is nearly unreadable. Here's a random example:

"Importantly, the researchers employed the LOESS method to analyze seasonally adjusted rates rather than rolling monthly sums to increase the model’s sensitivity in detecting trend changes immediately after the intervention began. In contrast, using 12-month rolling averages would have meant that the months following the initial intervention would have been calculated using pre-intervention data, reducing the potential for an observable effect."

Seriously? This isn't a term assignment for your fucking stats class, bro! You're trying to convince the Boneheads Sitting In Darkness that Felony Fats is doing bullshit posse comitatus crimes! Make it clear! Make it simple! Use plots and graphs and pictures! Make the conclusions bullet-point direct and simple!

Had Tubby & Co said and done absolutely nothing about this it would have bobbed along in the leftier portions of the internet before sinking without so much as a bubble or two. It's too complex to turn into a slam on the fascist bastards, and since the journos won't read it or understand it either, even if they had the sack to keep bugging Spray-tan Hitler about it they'd get bored and drop it or wander away before it got anywhere close to dinging the porcine bastard and all his little taint-lickers.

They can't ignore this, because they're vicious little mean, petty shitbirds that can't resist screeching and flailing at their "enemies" even if it makes more sense to STFU. 

Now? It might even make it to a CNN late-night opinion show. Wouldn't bet money on it. But maybe, on the "hit dogs holler" sort of grounds. 

Instead the simple sonsofbitches are faffing around talking about suing CAP and getting all fierce and testosterone-y about going after them for daring to tell people that water is wet and rando GIs from Cracklick, WV, don't stop urban hoboes from stealing stuff out of your car at night.

Well, whoodathunkit?!

These fucking people. They're enough to make a cat laugh.