Sunday, September 27, 2020

So here's the problem...

...the imminent elevation of a wingnut fundie (what the hell do you call a religious/political "conservative", anyway? There needs to be some sort of one-word term for "religious nut/right-wing nut". Holy wingnut? I dunno, but Barrett is what one of those is...) to the Supreme Court reminds us that the current political problems facing this country are damn near insoluble.

Let this go - let the "conservatives" lock in a political mastery for the next fifty-odd years - and you have a numerical minority that clings fanatically to political, social, and economic ideals that range from disliked to violently loathed by the 55-60 percent of the nation that is not them forcing those ideals on that majority. 

Basically you have the political setup of any number of ex- European colonies; the colonial-favored minority rules the colonial-crushed mass of the population. As places like Nigeria and Cuba and Nicaragua and Rwanda and Congo and Indonesia discovered, that's not just not stable democracy, that's not stable, period. The ruling minority eventually has to go full-dictatorship to keep the mobs down. Or the mob rebels and it's civil war.

But...let's assume that the opposite happens. Trump loses bigly, the blue wave washes over the Senate, and suddenly the positions are reversed; the "liberals" hold all three branches, and are in no mood to act nice.

So Trumpkins left and right are prosecuted, wingnut lust-objects are attacked and destroyed, the Court is packed...all the wingnut nightmares bloom.

But the "conservatives" are still there. The hard, irreducible, intransigent lump of wingnut hate for the 20th Century remains scattered all across the nation. It can't be reasoned with. It can't be bargained with. It can't be appeased. It will prefer to burn the nation to the ground rather than accept the existence of Drag Queen Story Hour.

So instead of post-colonial Nigeria, we're stuck with Britain in 1859 Ireland or 1750 Scotland, or Austria-Hungary in 1914 Serbia ; a ruling majority has to deal with a violent minority utterly unwilling to live peaceably under their conquerors, with Ingraham and Limbaugh and Hannity as Radio Rwanda or the Black Hand, constantly urging resistance to the oppressors.

I have no fucking idea how either one of those works as nonviolent politics even in the medium term. Either one leads to shooting one way or the other, either as rebellion or dictatorship.

And I have not idea how to change that, or avoid it. I think it's just coming, and we're going to have to figure out where we all stand when it does.

Update 6/27: Interestingly enough, Bob Reich thinks we're already there.

Saturday, September 19, 2020

The Fire Next Time, or, Jane Brown's Body

 For some time I've been wondering what the first shot of the coming "next Fort Sumpter" will be. The event that turns our Cold Second Civil War hot.


 Oh, wait. I didn't mention the whole "cold Civil War" thing? Damn. I am getting forgetful in my old age.

So you see, there is no "We the People" anymore.

C'mon. You know that. Just be willing to quit kidding yourself otherwise.

Instead there's a sort of vast inchoate mass of humans who call themselves "Americans" that takes in every damn one and every damn thing under the sky. All sorts of people, being and doing all sorts of things. Moderates, liberals, atheists, Quakers, whackos, undecideds, and the hopelessly lost.

And there's a hard, irreducible, intransigent knot of people who call themselves "Conservatives".

The latter - and they do have some internal divisions, too - don't see the former as "Americans" at all.

These "conservatives" have some ideology but are mostly defined by what and who they hate.

They hate "liberals", first and foremost.

But the different internal divisions hate different aspects of these "liberals".

The racists, who are primarily invested in being white and that being the default position of "American" hate the pushy darks and anyone who has the temerity to even slightly question that White Is Right.

The gunhumpers - many of whom are white, too - hate anyone who tries to pry them off their lust objects, all fifteen of them.

The religious nuts - many of whom are also white (but not all; this is where the largest fraction of not-white "conservatives" come into the GOP tent) - hate anyone who's not doing whatever their invisible sky daddy says they're "supposed" to do, or doing things that the transparent sky wizard says they're not "supposed" to do. So they hate mostly abortions and the women who have abortions, and anyone involved with abortions. But they also hate non-straight people who are doing any sort of non-straight things (like having other-that-hetero-sex) or ARE doing things that straight people are doing (like marrying and having kids and going to yard sales and shit) plus Muslims and Jews and...well, you get the idea.

There's also some people who don't "hate" so much as are either just regular old greedy bastards - these are mostly just your basic rich people doing what rich people have always done, which is simply whatever it takes to make themselves richer - or people who have drunk the Ayn Rand kool-ade and are stupid enough to actually believe that big corporations and big rich people will screw you (the average non-wealthy person) over slower than big government, so they're just fucking idiots.

Anyway...all the the things these people love - theocracy, plutocracy, weapons, racism - are largely anywhere from unpleasant to outright offensive to everyone else. So they can't really run ON those things. Turns out that if you tell non-"conservative" people what these various "conservative" people really want, about 98.7% of those non-"conservative" people haaaaate all that stuff. 

I mean, hate, like with the intensity of a million suns.

So the "conservatives" just usually lie, and instead talk about how if you don't vote for them the commie liberals will flouridate your water and make you gay marry a Muslim transsexual.

Seriously. That's it. Flogging tax cuts for the rich, and feeding red meat culture war shit to the base.

Other than that the GOP's got nothin' for the vast majority of the American people.

So for about the past 40 years the "conservatives" have been at war with the liberals and everyone else who isn't "conservative". It's been a cold war, mostly; until lately no actual shots have fired.

But then on Friday Ruth Bader Ginsberg died and so now here's what's gonna happen.

Trump will send the name of some reliable bag of Federalist Society wingnut hate (apparently smart money is on some Opus Dei lunatic named Amy Coney Barrett who is chock full of the sort of old-fashioned Inquisitorial spite and malice that appalls most cradle Catholics) before Ginsberg is cold.

Moscow Mitch McConnell will ram this internet-comment-section-level-troll through confirmation and she'll be sworn in before Election Day to help her pals like Thomas and Kavanaugh strongarm "conservative" talking points onto everyone in this country.

And then it'll be Game On. 

They'll come for the 20th Century.

You think I'm joking?

Abortion will be first, of course. Roe will be toast. There will still be abortions - because as long as there is sex there will be abortions, don't kid yourself, - but only safe for the rich. For the poor and the lower class they'll often as not kill the women along with their spawn, which is the point.

Obergfell will be next, and, frankly, we'll be damn lucky if they don't overrule Griswold, Loving v. Virgina and Brown v. Board.

Lochner. Fuck. Lochner.

If you don't already, you need to Google Lockner v New York, because that's what the rich "conservatives" really want; a return to the Gilded Age, when plutocrats like John D. Rockefeller could say "The public be damned" and really do it. The six-vote "conservative" Supreme Court is gonna drive us back there most quick smart.

Along with any sort of workplace protection, you can kiss environmental and financial regulations bye-bye. Welcome back to the industrial world that used to set rivers on fire, and the highway to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum by way of 1895.

The only happy news is that as we roam this dystopian thermal hellscape at least we'll all be heavily armed, because any and all sort of firearms regulation is going to be dead'er than a dodo.

So after Donnie and Mitch seat their wingnut it won't matter how many liberals or "centerists" get elected. Every piece of legislation they pass will be litigated to the Supremes, who will take their "conservative" axe to it.

And the only real answer to prevent this "conservative" Day of Jubilee?

Go full FDR. Elect a Democratic President and Democratic Senate and Democratic House, and...

Pack the Court.

And when that happens, the wingnuts will howl like rabid wolves, and the real red-meat nutbars, the Proud Boys and Nazis and wanna-be Freikorps will turn out with their rifles.

And there we'll be; waiting to see who fires the first cannon at the big brick fort in the harbor.

That's how I see it. I don't like that, but I also don't see any way around it. The Right is going to force the Everyone-Not-Right to bend the knee or they'll shoot.

And your and my and everyone else's choice is simply whether we're willing to bend the knee or shoot back.

I don't have to like that.

But I don't see any alternatives other than even worse ones; a corporatist "conservative" future where we all the "rest of us" end up as serfs in climate change Hell.

And, goddamn it, I'll go down fighting before I surrender to that.



Sunday, September 13, 2020

The Fire This Time

So I promised (warned? threatened?) to have something to say about the Oregon story that's in y'all's news feeds this week; the wildfires (and attendant smoke-clouds crouching over Portland) that are still tearing up our Northwest forests.

As with everything in the United States today, the fires have several competing narratives. Viewed from the Left, it's all about climate change. From the Right, it's spotted owls and ecofreaks preventing Good Loggers from cleaning and raking Oregon forests.

The reality, as reality tends to do, has a definite liberal bias. But it's more complex than either side wants to admit, meaning that changing the reality we're facing today is complex and difficult and, as you probably know, humans aren't good at "complex and difficult".

But let's begin with the climate.

Baby, It's Warm Outside

Yes, the warming climate is a big part of the problem.

Oregon and the rest of us here in the Northwest have a rep as a misty hinterland of coffee and beer and Sasquatch and flannel shirts set amid the rainy forests. But in fact the north part of the Pacific Coast - from about Mendocino, California to the tip of Vancouver Island - has what's called a "xeric" climate. You might have heard it called "Mediterranean". 

It means cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers.

And our summers are dry. It's common to have little or no rain between the end of June and mid-October. Temperatures can run up into the nineties for weeks, with nasty days in the hundreds, and everything dries and bakes under the summer sun.

But we've been getting less rain (and, critically, less snow - because many of our rivers depend on Cascades snowmelt by late summer and early autumn) and that's definitely been a factor in the frequency and size of forest fires, including this year's.

But that's not all, or, in my opinion, even the biggest factor, in the Fire Story

Tall Timber

You probably know we throw a lot of timber. Still do. Aside from the plow, the axe and saw did more to make Oregon "Oregon" than perhaps anything else outside the fishwheel and gillnet. The earliest fortunes made here were made in timber - not that the people who were actually touching the trees - the toppers, fellers, yarders, choker-setters, the guys running the steam-donkeys or goading the ox-teams, poling the log rafts, the mill hands and sawyers, the cooks in the camp kitchen - were making bank, mind. 

Nah. Those poor bastards were just, y'know, "people", and who gave a shit about them? They weren't organized - the I.W.W. ran into lots of trouble trying to unionize the lumber camps back in the Nineteen-Oughts and Teens - they were usually those damn dirty immigrants (although more often Swedish and Finnish and Norwegian than the current browner versions doing the dirty, dangerous, low-paying work us nice people don't want to do...) and probably radicals and anarchists, anyway.

Nope. The money was made by the "timber barons" and their companies; the plutocrats who fronted the cash and reaped the big harvests of money from the harvesting of timber.

And, it should be said, gave about a micron of a picoshit about the timberlands they reaped.

Very, very few timber magnates, or timber companies, spent anything on trying to restore the lands they cut. They logged them flat and walked away. If the hillsides slid, if the rivers and streams choked with mud? Who cared? That just fucked over those "people", and there were lots more hills and streams and trees to cut and people to cut them.

Well...the free land did finally run out, and the timber outfits began to realize that there was nowhere left to log. And they'd pretty much logged out the rest of the nation already, so there was nowhere to run, either.

(If you want to read a sickening tale of corporate logging, read about Michigan. The logging companies moved in during the 1860s and started cutting. They cut like sonsofbitches until by 1900 the state was literally logged out. Not a single marketable stand of big trees remained. 

So the timber outfits ran like little bitches to the Northwest, and left the Michigan loggers to hit the road begging for work and the timber towns to die.)

So reluctantly Weyerhaeuser and Cavenham and Simpson began to "replant" their Oregon timberlands.

But these plantations weren't "forests". A mature Northwest forest looks like this:

The big trees screen out most of the light, so the forest floor is pretty open. There's some swordfern and maybe Oregon grape, a vinemaple or three...but not a lot of undergrowth. It's dotted with openings where a tree has died or fallen, but it's mostly just tall timber and a sparse understory.

(In fact, the local tribes used fire to open the canopy to get browse for the elk and deer they hunted; there just wasn't much huntable meat inside the big trees.)

Now...this is a plantation - what the #Timberunity people like to call a "working forest". This is what happens when a timber outfit "replants" a "forest":

This is a bit exaggerated; this stand has never been thinned, but it's still pretty close to typical for a 10-year old stand. We call it "twig" or "doghair" timber, and it's nasty to work in - close, hot in the summer, and full of things that poke and tear the shit out of you when you try and push through it - and as explosive as a match-head when it dries out in the summer.

The big trees and the wet forest floor tend to hold water, even in the driest months. This stuff? Dries like flashpaper. Even relatively mature second-growth stands, like this one - 

are much drier and the flammable load is much higher. 

An old forest burn tends to smoulder. The undergrowth burns, but the fires tend to be lower and cooler; most of the trees themselves may char but don't burn. In an old stand you often see big redcedars or douglas-firs with blackened bark telling how they've lived through (presumably) several fires.

Those second-growth, "plantation" trees?

They candle.

So you have thousands of acres of these matchbox stands of second-growth, and when you throw in generations of fire suppression that has removed the natural regime of regular fires that remove the forest floor litter and combustible brush with these unnatural "forests"?

And you've got perfect tinder for big fires.

Hell is Other People

And, then, of course, you add fucking people.

Forests have always burned. Before people, it was just a thing that happened. Dry lightning, usually, and the woods would burn. Some of the creatures in it would die, the rest would have to run for it, and then the reforestation would begin.

Add low-tech humans and, as I've noted, you get human-caused fires; untended campfires, deliberate clearing, but pretty much the same effect. Most native tribes here in the Northwest would have been smart enough not to set fires where they were camped or their houses were built.

And - barring the occasional freakish windstorm, say, that spun the longhouse fire out into the trees - their limited means of firemaking meant that those fires almost had to be deliberately set.

But now?

Christ, what don't we industrial civilization-types have that causes things to light up?

Powerlines, obviously, are the big offenders. Many of the current fires were lit off by the big windstorm that blew through here at the end of the first week of September; falling limbs and trees hit or knocked down powerlines, and the dry East wind whipped up the sparks into a firestorm.

But you got your exhaust pipes, your brush- and trash-burning, your cigarette butts, your fireworks, your gender reveal parties...fuck, as my old drill sergeant used to say; "People, enh? They could fuck up a wet dream."

And, of course, you have your woods dwellers.

Here in Oregon we have two main varieties.

Our well-to-do love to live in the woodlands. They plant their communities thick with trees, they push their homes deep into the forests, because...well, it's Oregon, and we're timber people, right? Never mind the Tesla in the driveway, we're just flannel-shirted loggers at heart.

And there's also a bunch of genuine flannel-shirted poor people who hang on in the woods at the fringes of the cities, out in the scabby second-growth, because they need to live cheap and a shotgun shack in Clackamas County is goddamn cheap.

Both sorts usually don't bother to clear the undergrowth far enough away from the walls. Hell, the richies have lot of lovely flammable landscaping planted to make the place pretty. 

The houses of both the scraggly poor and the manicured rich burn like sonsofbitches, though, when the fire rips through the place, forcing people to run, sometimes killing the ones who don't, or who can't, and forcing the firefighting teams to try and dig in and defend these damn firetraps to let the people inside escape.

So here we are.

Climate + Logging + People?

And there you have it. Years of fucking up the woods and then moving into them set the table, then the changes in the climate cooked the hell-feast, and we're here, huddling indoors because the smoke from the Santiam Fire...

...spread across our state in a choking blanket of eye-searing, throat-tightening misery for which we have only ourselves to blame.

And the notion that we will do anything sensible to change this?

That We the People will rein in industrial logging? That we will stop people from building in harm's way? That we will do any damn thing to reverse the inevitable slide back into the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum?

Ha.

Thanks. I needed a laugh right now. 

Because otherwise my throat is full of nothing but rage and smoke.



Friday, September 11, 2020

Friday Jukebox: アニメミュージック・ビデオ Edition

I was going to write a post about how I and my nefarious antifa terrorist friends have been lighting off fires in the Oregon forests, but, y'know what? Fuck that. It's been a shitty week, and I wanted to post something fun.

So...these are something called "anime music videos"; they're fan-made, and take clips from anime - that is, Japanese animated films, and set them to music. I stumbled across them reading Athena Scalzi's fun little post on the subject over at Whatever.

Here's the first one. The bulk of the anime is an utterly adorable little slice of life series called Tamako Market, たまこまーけっと , which is, well, adorable.


Couple of notes: the bit at the very end - which is definitely NOT from the rest of the anime, is from another show, Kyousougiga (京騒戯画)

And now I reeeelly want to find the episode of Tamako Market that's sampled at about 2:12 in the video, because I want to find out about the hammer and three nails. WTF? Crucifixion? In an adorable slice-of-life show? Seriously?

The music - which is a huge part of what makes it art - is a song titled "Crabbuckit" performed by the Good Lovelies. Big props to Tamako, the Good Lovelies, and to Copycat Revolver, who made it.

And the second is here:


This one is a lot more complex, and includes the following anime: Your Lie In April, Virgin Soul, Magi and the labyrinth of magic, Beyond the Boundary, Yuri On Ice, Death Parade, and Free!!!

I don't know why I like this one so much, but I think it's the combination of the utterly goofy pop song ("Dance Monkey", by Tones and I) and the clever editing by Light Raider, the creator. 

Anyway, that's for Friday. 

I'll be back this weekend with my take on these damn fires.

Saturday, September 05, 2020

Chumps, Suckers, and Losers

We're now apparently supposed to be all aghast that the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. military thinks that people who get killed wearing a uniform are "suckers" and "losers".

 (pausing here to note that many of these same pearl-clutchers seemed juuuust fine with the same individual when he was raging and threatening any and all of his fellow citizens who happened to disagree with him politically in fine caudillo style. But we're not here for partisanship at the moment...)

Here's the thing.

If you are a GI, or someone who loves or cares for a GI, or just someone who “supports the troops”...at the very least be honest

Those of us who wear the tree suit are tokens in the Game of Thrones. I'm not whining about that. That's the nature of the business. We knew that when we took the re-up bonus. When it comes right down to it our job is, at the final throw, to be used - and spent, if need be - gaining or trying to gain some geopolitical thing.

We can hope that those spending our health and lives and futures are doing that wisely, judiciously, frugally, and for only the best and gravest of reasons.

All the while knowing that the opposite is very often the case; we will be thrown away for ignorance, pride, hubris, and foolishness. Our lives, or some portion of them, will often be wasted.

That's what we get paid for. That's our bottom line. That's the bargain we've made.

 And if you don’t like that, or that saddens or appalls, or horrifies you?

You need to be better citizens. Learn the issues. Question authority. Support people and policies...or protest against them! Vote...and vote with your head, not with FOX or Facebook or your old high school buddy’s latest email attachment.

Voting for some trashbag or fool or madman, or not even bothering to vote when there's a chance that trashbag of a human being might be elected, means that you lose the privilege to be shocked, shocked, when that trashbag trashes your precious "troops". 

We are your responsibility. We the People are supposed to be sovereign in this republic. So We the People are the ones who ultimately decide whether our futures are hoarded, or wasted.

If someone you helped vote into power - or someone you're not fighting with all your might to keep from power - is disparaging, or mocking, or wasting your soldiers’ lives?

It’s not their problem.

It’s yours.