Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Decisive Battles: Frontiers 1914 - Part 3: Plans, Plans, and More Plans

We're up to the third part of our series on the August 1914 "Battle of the Frontiers". Part 1 (Origins of the 1914 Crises) is here, Part 2 (German War Plans) is here.

Now we're going to look at the "other side of the hill", the evolution of the French operational planning that culminated in the actions the French Army performed in the opening moves of World War 1.

However...

In France, perhaps more than any of the other Powers, political considerations affected the military preparations for what would become The Great War. So before we talk about soldiers and operations, we have to talk about...

France Between The Wars: Revolution and Counterrevolution

19th Century France was, like many nations, rife with factions large and small. Unlike many nations, however, those factions had gone to war in France, beginning - at least, in open battle - in 1789.

The events of the Revolution made political opponents into mortal enemies. 

For over the next century the accusation of treason to the nation because of allegiance to faction, whether "conservative" (which in post-Revolutionary France largely meant either royalist or Catholic or, most likely, both) or "radical" (ranging from bourgeois Republican through socialist to, after the mid-century, communist).

These factions could make truce for a time, and when national (or international) events were fairly placid. In times of crisis, however, or where certain matters were concerned, that truce was shaky at best and fragile to broken at worst.

The French political Right had the grievance of the original Red Terror of the 18th Century to nurture. For the Left, it was the events of La Semaine Sanglante, "Bloody Week", of May 1871.

The Wikipedia entry for "Paris Commune" does fairly decent work summarizing the events, but the tl:dr is that after the defeat at Sedan destroyed the legitimacy of the Second Empire, and the German siege of Paris that followed in the late autumn of 1870 and winter of 1871 shredded the remaining political standing of the middle- and upper-class French who had supported the Empire, many of the citizens of Paris, and the citizen-soldiers of the Garde Nationale, had had their bellyful of empires, emperors, priests, and princes.

 
They rebelled, and set up their own Republic in the winter and early spring of 1871.

Which lasted all of nine weeks or so, from March to May, 1871, until the regular Army broke through the Communard defenses and took the city by storm.

(This is what a real barricade looks like, BTW)

It made for a great book (and a Tony Award-winning musical)...

(This looks more sexy on stage, though, so.)

...but the vicious legacy of the Red-on-White butchery of 1789 was now countered by the White-on-Red massacres of 1871.

The two factions were, if anything, more implacable than ever.

Why Are We Talking About This #$%&!!#! Political Stuff?

Because in France between 1870 and 1914 the Army was the rope in a political tug-of-war.

Most specifically, the Army as a political objective of the factions; as a standing force of regular soldiers versus "the nation in arms", the volunteers and reservists.

To grossly simplify, the Regular Army was "right"; conservative, often Catholic, even royalist. Regular officers were unsurprisingly politically conservative, regular soldiers could be counted on - as they had in May 1871 - to fire on anyone they were told to shoot.

A large regular Army was, therefore, considered by almost all French political factions, to be an instrument of "conservative" power.

The "not-regulars"; everyone from reservists to civilians who, in Republican mythos, would stream to the tricolor when La Patrie was En Danger, were not. They would be at heart civilian and as such more sympathetic to, and protective of, the political "left", as the National Guard had been to the Paris Commune.


The general idea was that the longer the regular officers had their dickbeaters on Jacques the more likely he was to be willing to shoot Cosette and Marius.

So the political left wanted a small regular Army and a short active-duty stint for the reserves. The political right wanted a bigger standing force and a longer active term.

The two main factions pulled the Army rope this way and that depending on their power in government and the dangers from abroad, and that's our next stop.

French Military Planning and Technical Development, 1871-1891

Obviously the first order of business for Third Republic France was to get the goddamn Boche out of the picture. 

The five billion franc indemnity imposed by the Treaty of Frankfurt that ended the Franco-Prussian War was paid off ahead of schedule. The Army was reorganized and reconstituted, with the obvious end of being prepared for the rematch.

The "conservative" service obligation - five years with the regular army - remained in place after 1872 as part of this rebuilding.

The first decade after Sedan were dominated by a defensive posture. The Sere de Rivieres forts formed the basis of French military planning. This included a big program of railway construction; one of the big shortcomings of the Second Empire's "Systeme D" haphazard military "planning" had been the primitive infrastructure of metropolitan France.

This process took time. Rail lines between the interior and the frontiers, including the fortress complexes of Verdun and Belfort, were constructed between 1870 and the mid- to late-1880s. 

French infantry, which with the Fusil modèle 1866 "Chassepot" rifle had proved effective when well led in 1870, was still effective when well led and even moreso when the magazine-fed bolt-action M93 Fusil Modèle 1886 "Lebel" replaced the chassepot.

In the middle of this period the French left got the service obligation period reduced to three years in 1889

The French artillery, whose 18th Century muzzle-loading cannon had been brutally outclassed by the German Krupp steel breechloaders, received the first massive improvement in cannon since the système Gribeauval of 1765; the Matériel de 75 mm Mle 1897 or "French 75".

 


The key to the effectiveness of the "soixante-quinze" was simple; a hydraulic piston.

The biggest problem with artillery fire is just getting a damn round on target. 

After all, you're anywhere from several thousand meters to several kilometers (the maximum range of the French 75mm is about 11 kilometers or so; maximum effective range about 8500 to 9500 meters) and you're hucking a round that has small individual manufacturing imperfections down a barrel with some unknown degree of wear using a propellant that may be slightly warmer or cooler, or more or less abundant than what's in the previous or the next round.

Then, under the pre-soixante-quinze rules, once you have, say, put that first round inside the target - good for you! - you have a big problem.

Your whole cannon - barrel, trail, wheels and all - has responded to the action of firing the round with the equal-and-opposite-reaction of "recoil"; the whole thing has jumped (or rolled) in the opposite direction of the round. 

All that laborious alignment and positioning and leveling and aiming you did for the first round? 

Shot to fucking hell and gone; now you have to manually push the thing back into what you hope is close to where it was, and then hope that the next round isn't too much heaver or lighter, its propellant not much warmer or colder, the shell not much less or more cylindrical, and the bore not much more badly worn, than the first round.

The "75" solved these problems by isolating the cannon barrel from the carriage on a sliding frame, and then added a piston - as shown above - to return the barrel to battery after each round. It didn't fix all the other little problems with things like barrel wear, round imperfections, and propellant variability...but those were small compared to having the fucking cannon leaping around like a fucking trout.

Suddenly French redlegs could count on - once they'd put a round on target; still a bit of work - quickly putting the next bunch of rounds on the same target.

You can see what a big deal that is.

This "quick-firing" artillery was military lightning in a bottle. All armies realized they needed one, and got to work developing one.

And, of course, there was also Hiram Maxim's nasty little 1884 invention...

To me here's the most interesting part of all this.

Today we tend to look at all these weapons - the magazine rifle, the machinegun, the recoil-buffered "quick-firing" cannon - combined with barbed wire and defensive entrenchments and see how they seem to make the trenches and defensive dominance of 1914-1918 that we think of when we think of "World War 1" inevitable.

At the time, though? A LOT of people, including a lot of military planners, saw them as offensive magic.

Moving quickly into position the artillery could lay down suppressive fire to cover the infantry move into firing position, where the volume of direct fire from bolt-action rifles and machineguns would tear open the enemy infantry lines for the final onset of bayonets.

So it's not too shocking that the French 1891 Plan XI proposed a counteroffensive into Germany after the initial German attack was stopped at the frontier forts. 

From there geopolitics began to intrude as well.

1892 to 1904: Plan XII to Le vengeur and Tangier

In Part 1 we talked about the big continental-European realignment of the late 19th Century; the German failure to renew the "Reinsurance Treaty" and the subsequent Russian deal with France.

With the promise of all that Russian steamrollering in East Prussia the prospects for a French offensive to take back the 1871 losses seemed more favorable. The 1892 Plan XII proposed considering a quick strike into Germany first. The primary plan was still defense-counteroffensive...but the thought was there.

But.

There was another thought in there, too.

Remember how Schileffen was thinking of a scenic detour though Belgium in the 1890s?

The French war planners had kinda the same thought. Since the best way through a line of forts was around them, well...the rumors out of Germany got them thinking.

Between 1892 and the opening half-decade of the 20th Century French military thinking continued along the defense-first lines. I can't find much information, even down to the dates, for war plans XIII and XIV, other than the cursory observation that they "...remained defensive-offensive, French attacks being expected after the repulse of a German invasion." (per the Wikipedia piece for Plan XVII). 

I do have a bit more information on Plan XIV which we'll discuss after talking about what I know about the enormous event that exploded France in 1894; l'affaire Dreyfus.


1894 Interlude - L'affaire Dreyfus

It's hard to describe how badly this mess tore up France.

There's a perfectly good article on the Affair up at the Holocaust Museum site, that notes that the conviction, appeal, and controversy surrounding a Jewish officer...

"...made a powerful impression in France, dividing the country into two camps. The anti-Dreyfusards, comprised of the Catholic Church, the military, and the right wing, clung to the original verdict and exploited antisemitism. They feared that a reversal would lead to a weakening of the military establishment. They were opposed by the Dreyfusards, an alliance of moderate Republicans, Radicals, and Socialists...(who) felt the case had become a test of France's ability to protect truth, justice, and the basic elements of the Rights of Man against the forces of extreme nationalism, antisemitism, and the excessive involvement of the Church in state affairs."
This battle forms the background for the next two decades, and has echoes that continue down to this day, including that the grotesque antisemitism exposed by the Affair - that a thoroughly assimilated Jewish officer could be railroaded on clearly faked "evidence" - helped convince the European Zionists such as Hertzl that there was no safety or security in assimilation.

For France, it was just another coal on the fire of the Left-Right Culture War.

1904-1905: The Invisible Man and the Invisible War

Okay, so. From here to 1914 I got a lot of ideas out of David Herrmann's 1996 The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War. It's a useful secondary source, and well worth tracking down. I'll try and give you the gist in outline form.

Between 1904 and 1905:
A German (presumably an officer - he identified himself as a General Staff colonel - but still known only by his pseudonym le Vengeur) met with a French intelligence officer in Liege and sold him the entire 1904 Aufmarsch which included the proposed German violation of Belgian neutrality...

...and...

...the German foreign office staged a confrontation over French activities in Morocco.

These both turned out to be bad news for France.

First, although the Deuxeme Bureau - French military intelligence - considered the Vengeur information valid the French higher generally discounted, or at least failed to take seriously, the purchased Aufmarsch for the following decade.

When you read the tale the supposed German informant did appear ridiculous, turning up in Liege with his face wrapped in bandage and only his mustache poking out. 

But French intelligence had already noted the work the German Eisenbahnbautruppen - their railway units - had put in to extend the German rail system to the Belgian border as well as massive detraining platforms and billeting constructed near the new railheads.

So nothing was done to incorporate this information into French war planning until...wait. We'll get there.

Second, the situation along the border drove home French weakness.

Russia was tied down; losing war in Manchuria and revolution in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Britain had no way of providing anything but naval support and, as French prime minister Rouvier is attributed as noting "...that English ships have no wheels".

On the frontier the German Army looked like a load, in numbers alone.

Herrmann (1996) says: 

"The General Staff in Paris had abandoned the idea of forming reserve corps and incorporating reserve divisions into the main fighting forces when they designed their 1898 mobilization...Plan XIV...and Plan XV of 1903 grouped them well to the rear...The result was a dramatic numerical advantage for Germany, Twenty-one French corps would face the equivalent of thirty-six German."

 So the French changed things up a bit and not in a good way.

1906: Plan XIV and Who The Hell Are Doing All This Stuff

Before we talk about the changes incorporated in the 1906 war plan, let's look briefly at the French officers doing all this planning, because the French higher organization was kind of weird in a "you're not helping" sort of way.

If Bread is the Staff of Life, What is the Life of The Staff? 

One Long Loaf.

Technically the most senior French military position was the Minister of War (Ministre de la guerre). This guy was normally a very senior officer, but also tended to get replaced like a pair of boots. Here's the Wikipedia page for the period we're looking at, from about 1900 to 1911:

Andre' is the graybeard with nearly four and a half years, down to poor Goiran's one-day-over-two-weeks. 

The bottom line is that these guys were there pretty often to just sign the goddamn form, sir.

The real power lay in two other guys.

While the Minister of War was the notional president of the Conseil supérieur de la guerre, the "Supreme War Council" the officer who really ran the 99.9% of the daily CSG business was the vice-president, whose position was formalized as the Boss of CSG in 1903. 

From 1900 to 1906 it was this guy: Henri Joseph Brugère.

Brugere was a gunner, with war service in 1870. He was mentioned in dispatches in December 1870 for "...enlevé une pièce prussienne sous le feu de l'ennemi.", that is, for capturing a Prussian cannon under enemy fire as a captain in the 15th Artillery.

(Intriguingly, the Wikipedia app translates the phrase une pièce prussienne sous le feu as "a Prussian coin under fire" which had me scratching my head until I switched it back to the original French and the word pièce made sense as "artillery piece".)

Brugere comes across like kind of a hardhead in the historical accounts, but I don't know much else about him other than the role he's described as playing in Herrmann (1996) and what I can get from his French Wikipedia page.

We'll talk about that a bit more after we look at his opposite number in 1905 was the Chef d'État-Major Général de l'Armée - the Chief of the General Staff.

This position was a relative latecomer, set up only in 1871. In 1888 the Chief was pushed into the CSG as a sort of quasi-advisor (he wasn't an official member of the Council) in particular as the director of war plans.

The particular Chief we're looking at is this character; General de division Jean Michel Toussaint Pendézec.

If I don't know much about Brugere I know next to nothing about Pendezec. There's one of those genealogy pages about him that has him being commissioned out of St. Cyr in 1863 (so presumably a very junior officer in 1870) but it adds that he was "Promotion Du Mexique", suggesting that he might have been involved in the Maximilian fiasco there in the late 1860s.

Then nothing until his promotion to two-star general in 1900 and then Chief of Staff in 1903.

So we have our players in place, and, as the Wiki entry notes for the CSG, the organizational chart was practically designed for power struggles between the Vice-president and the Chief. 

Ready? Here we go.

1905: War Plans in the (1905 Moroccan) Crisis

Just like the headline, this section is taken practically intact from Herrmann (1996). I'll try to summarize.

Herrmann (1996) says without demur: "The French general staff's Plan XV provided for the deployment of the whole army on the...Franco-German frontier between Verdun and Belfort. The...difficulty was that Plan XV was wrong about where the enemy would attack."

Here's the accompanying map:

Herrmann (1996) notes that "(t)he only French troops deployed north of Verdun in the Plan XV dispositions were four cavalry divisions."

He goes on to add that Pendezec was stressed about this. Noting the Vengeur intel, the rail and barrack construction, he supported what Herrmann (1996) says was "The operations office (of the General Staff) proposed that Plan XV be modified to deploy some forces further north..."

Supposedly Brugere shot this down, because
1) German mobilization would be too slow to get enough troops to the frontiers, anyway, and
2) the Germans wouldn't use their reserves as forward maneuver units, and
3) he refused to believe the Germans would violate Belgian neutrality so brutally.

Meanwhile in Paris the political Left was pissed off with the outcome of the Morocco Crisis, with the Army's desuetude as revealed in several publications of military issues (particularly a highly negative assessment of the couverture (fortress) units along the eastern border), and with the Right as usual.

The result was a change to the service regulations that reduced the regular army term to two years:

"The Military Law of 1905 has to be highlighted as it established a short but universal service. In the barracks, on the officer’s desk, it meant more diversified recruits with less time to acculturate them with patriotic or sacrificial values, not to speak of tactical skills." (1914-1918 Online, 2014)

And this is supposedly where things stood until March 1906.

1906: Plan XVa?

There's a major divergence in the source materials for the 1906 "revision" of Plan XV.

Herrmann (1996) dismisses it as purely trivial: "The revision of Plan XV...merely redeployed a single army corps to the north of Verdun, spread along the line of the Meuse."

He does note that the 1905 Crisis had prompted the French and British militaries to begin actual discussions for deployment of a British army to France. 

The Wikipedia entry for Plan XVII, though, says this revision was significant:

"Using this windfall (the Vengeur intelligence) and other sources of information, the French adapted Plan XV of 1906, to be ready for a German invasion of Belgium and later plans contained increases in the forces to be assembled to the north and north-east of Verdun."

I'm not sure I buy that, and here's why.

For one, General Brugere was still Vice-president of the CSG, and he was bone-deep against it.

For another, the next big fight over Plan XVI - which we'll discuss immediately below - was all about this issue, suggesting that the previous Plan hadn't settled it or really done much about it.

Which brings us to...

1909 Plan XVI

Okay, now we're really in the deep tules.

I'm going to quote the above Wiki entry for Plan XVII at length, because of it's importance:

"Plan XVI of March 1909, anticipated a German enveloping manoeuvre through Luxembourg and Belgium, after the findings of a 1908 analysis by General Henri de Lacroix, in which he dwelt on the German preference for enveloping manoeuvres and predicted that two German armies would march through eastern Belgium, around the northern flank of the French fortress zone, one to emerge from the Ardennes at Verdun and the other at Sedan. Lacroix wanted to improve the prospects of the usual defensive-offensive strategy by assembling a new Sixth Army near Châlons-sur-Marne, (now Châlons-en-Champagne), 80 km (50 mi) west of Verdun, easily to move towards Toul in the centre, Verdun on the left or to the vicinity of Sedan and Mézières behind the northern flank."

This agrees with the "1914-1918 Online" site which says:

"A defensive-offensive conduct of war was designed by concentrating, amidst an extended initial location of troops from north to south, a central “masse de manoeuvre” allowing the high command to counterattack whatever the enemy undertook (Plan XVI, 1909)"

Okay, now here's the thing, though. De Lacroix wasn't the Chief of Staff, the war plans guy, in 1909. He was in Brugere's spot; Vice-president of the CSG. The Chief at the time of March 1909 was a two-star by the name of Jean Brun, about whom I can find absolutely nothing.

Did de Lacroix ask Brun to work this up? And how do we know this? The source for the Wiki quote it a 2005 work by Robert Doughty: Pyrrhic victory: French Strategy and Operations in the Great War and I can't find any other source cited for this planning.

The Doughty work is fiendishly expensive; in excess of $30 even for the Kindle edition. I punted, picking up a copy of Doughty's essay in the 2010 collection War Planning 1914 (Thompson, ed.).

In his monograph on French planning - although not mentioning the plan number or Lacroix by name - Doughty says:

"With each new plan the French increased the number of forces north and northwest of Verdun. In 1908 they foresaw the Germans sending two armies around the flank of French fortifications and passing through Luxembourg and eastern Belgium. Because they did not know for sure where the Germans might strike...they...chose instead to create a powerful force for a counterattack...Sixth Army..."

Presumably this is the Clif's Notes version of the longer passage cited in the Wiki piece which is probably from the Doughty (2005) work.

So, okay. We've got the idea. Someone - probably Lacroix, or possibly Brun and Lacroix working together - was worried about the left flank and came up with a fix for that.

Herrmann (1996) has a very nice discussion (pages 59-146) on "Military Effectiveness and Modern Technology, 1906-1908" (Chapter 3) as well as the military innovations involved during "The Bosnia-Herzegovina Annexation Crisis and the Recovery of Russian Power, 1908-1911" (Chapter 4). 

It's far too much to summarize here, but Herrman (1996) points out how non-lethal innovations, things like radio, telephone wire, motor vehicles, field kitchens, and aircraft, were a critical part of the military revolution that led to war.

And that brings us up to 

1911: Plan XVI, Michel and Agadir

During the summer and into the autumn of 1911 French military plans and German geopolitics banked off each other like billiard balls.

The foreign policy piece was again set in Morocco, where French demicolonial activity drew German pressure...this time in the form of a German gunboat that turned up at the Moroccan port of Agadir.

The threat implicit in SMS Panther's two little four-inch popguns was that if France objected to the loss of western Morocco it would face the rest of Germany's armed force.

The threat didn't work; the German foreign ministry had counted on the sort of Russian incapacity and British indifference that had forced France to back down in 1905. When the Entente didn't fold, the Germans had to or risk a general war that the Army wasn't ready to fight.

As Herrmann (1996) puts it: 

"Berlin was outvoted diplomatically and could not menace its opponents with war as in 1905 and 1909 because for the first time this would have entailed the risk of a conflict with France, Britain, and Russia all together...which deprived Berlin of the military ascendancy it had grown accustomed to exploiting."

That got Germany scrambling to find ways of reasserting that ascendancy.

Meanwhile, the French military planning was also going through some big changes, largely driven by this guy, appointed head of the CSG in January, Général Victor-Constant Michel.

Michel was even more convinced than de Lacroix that the Germans were going through central Belgium. His Wiki entry does a good job of summing up his proposed fix to Plan XVI, which in the summer of 1911 still 1) mobilized the bulk of the French Army behind the Verdun-Belfort fortress lines and 2) relegated the reserve units to the rear areas.

Worth noting that Michel was considered a "man of the Left"; he'd had significant experience training reservists and trusted them and as such attracted a lot of side-eye from the French Right. 

So in July 1911 when he presented his (with, presumably, either the concurrence or at least benign indifference of Augustin Dubail, the Chief of Staff) proposals for the war plan revision...

"Michel...correctly predicted the main elements of the German Schlieffen Plan. He argued that the major German offensive would probably come through central Belgium...and proposed a new strategy to be called Plan XVII (this is an error in the Wiki entry; the July 1911 meeting proposed to amend Plan XVI).
Michel's plan called for...770,000 men in two "Mass of Maneuver" formations along the Belgian border, backed by a reserve of 220,000 men centered around Paris. The third Mass of Maneuver, of 300,000 men, would be along the German border. In order to field an army of that size, French reserve units would need to be integrated with the active army immediately on mobilization."

...the conservative faction in the CSG (which included the Minister of War, Adolphe-Marie Messimy) haaaaated it.

One innovative part of the Michel proposal was to brigade reserve units one-to-one with the regulars. These "demi-brigades" would, ideally, train together in peacetime to fight together in war.

Messimy and the conservatives - the whole War Council, in fact - hated that, too. So much so that Messimy responded swiftly and dramatically before the end of July.

First, he fired Michel.

Then he completely reorganized the top of the French Army MTO&E.

The positions of "vice-president of the CSG" and "Chief of the Army General Staff" were merged; now one guy would be both, responsible for both technical and tactical Army management and strategic Army planning. 

The then-Chief of Staff (Dubail) was eased into a "Chief of the Army Staff" position as the #2 guy.

This made a lot of sense, regardless of the strategic planning issues. The power struggle between the two positions was not helpful for long- or even short-range planning.

Messimy tapped this guy to be the new boss of the Army; Joseph Jacques Césaire Joffre.

Joffre and the road to Plan XVII

Joffre is a whole story in himself, but to keep things manageable the most salient pieces of him are that he was bright, egotistical, supremely self-confident, and - most importantly - unconvinced that he needed buy-ins from subordinates (or permission from his superiors) to get his missions accomplished.

He was also one of those annoyingly-common professional-officer-in-a-popular-republic types who had already concluded that his biggest problem was nosy political bodies butting into his military business. As Doughty (2010) says: "...he (Joffre) decided not to inform his political superiors or the army commanders who would conduct the operation (of his war plan). He wanted no interference..."

Instead, Joffre started re-writing Plan XVI in the summer of 1911, but decided that he needed a full-on new plan. This, which became Plan XVII, was prepared through 1912 and 1913 before being issued in February 1914 and finalized in May.

The basic outline of the final version included:
1) Primary concentration of forces behind the line of fortifications in the northeast; four armies (First, Second, Third, and Fifth) along the German and Luxembourg frontiers with a fifth (Fourth Army) in reserve behind the front four,
2) Fifth Army "occupied a broad front stretching across the Luxembourg-Belguim frontier and extending west beyond Mezieres to Hirson" (Doughty, 2010),
3) Grouped reserve units into four three-division-strong "Reserve Division Groups" - effectively corps without the corps assets - and parked one at each end of the forward units (one south of the southeasternmost army (First), the other northwest of Fifth Army) and the other two behind the fortress line menage.
4) A classified "annex" included a contingency for the British forces - without presuming their presence as a given - to fall in to the northwest of Mezieres left of Fifth Army.

In concept it looked like this:

The idea was that this mobilization plan would provide enough strength to attack either southeast of Metz (into Germany) or northwest (into Luxembourg and Belgium) depending on the German deployment.

Third and Fourth Armies were particularly critical to Joffre's scheme of defeating a possible German "right hook" - whether it was a "short hook" into Luxembourg and southeastern Belgium or a "big hook" across the Meuse into central or eastern Belgium - by attacking the "hinge" around Neufchateau and Charleroi.

(It's worth noting that in 1912 Joffre floated the idea of preemptively moving into Belgium to head off the German right wing sweep and his War Minister shot it down hard. The risk of losing British cooperation that would incur was too high.)

Obviously the critical part of the critical part of Third and Fourth Armies maneuver was knowing 1) where that "hinge" was and 2) what Germans would be there to be attacked.


1914: How's All That Planning Working Out For Ya, France?

So. To sum up.

Conventional wisdom on "World War 1" is typically that the deployments and operations that were actuated by Plan XVII - principally the weighted-up right wing (three of the five armies plus three-fourths of the "reserve groups") and the attacks into Germany southeast of Metz - were the "fatal flaw" that were largely responsible for the disastrous August of 1914.

And, yes; these were neither well-thought-out nor successful...but to me the reasons for failure seem primarily tactical rather than strategic.

The second and related  "failure point" is usually pointed at the hanging French/British left flank, the failure to anticipate (despite numerous intelligence warnings) the big Schlieffen right-wing hook through Belgium.

That, too, was not ideal...had that big hook 1) been logistically and time-and-space-do-able as planned, which most careful analyses (van Crevelt, represent!) suggest it was not, and 2) actually happened as planned, which it didn't. 

I don't see it. Yes, the hanging flank was still there, like a boxer's dropped right hand, but the big left hook didn't land.

To me the biggest and most critical failure was in the Ardennes, the strike at the "hinge" by Third and Fourth Armies.

Had that been effective it offered a real opportunity to dislocate the German invasion, isolating the German First and Second Armies from their lines of communication and supply and offering defeat of them in detail.

So I don't see Plan XVII itself as a flaming disaster. 

Good? No. 

But it wasn't the primary cause of the defeats in August. It was flawed, it wasn't particularly clever or promising...but not that much worse than flaws in the German Aufmarsch it opposed.


So...Why DID Things Go All To Hell in August?

Doughty (2010) has a good rundown of the technical and tactical issues with French war planning (specifically Joffre's work as Chief of Staff) that helped set up the defeats of The Frontiers;

1) The French Army command, control, communication, and information (C3I) setup was particularly unsuited for the tactical conditions of 1914. We'll get into this in more detail, but the bottom line is that the way the French Army - from GQG, the highest headquarters, down to the company and platoon level - did their intel collection and dissemination, and subsequent operational planning and order-issue, was badly outdated and ineffective.

2) That extended to battle tactics - particularly artillery-infantry coordination - and equipment - particularly heavy field artillery, where the lack of modern 120mm-and-larger field guns and over-reliance on the "soixante-quinze" were punitive.

Another issue was human. The "conservatives" were right on one point; the French reserve training was insufficient, the training areas undersized or unavailable, and as a result the reserve units lacked the capability to get up to combat speed as quickly as the German Ersatz corps. 

Aother human problem was the lack of trained noncommissioned officers. Even a return to a three-year active service commitment in 1913 didn't materially change that; instead it added a slug of noobs to already-under-led French infantry units. "A German infantry company normally possessed eighteen to twenty long-service noncommissioned officers in peacetime; a French company had only eight or nine, besides some recruits promoted in their second year..." (Herrmann 1996)

3) Perhaps beyond the scope of "plans" itself but viciously punitive over the course of the war to come was the failure of imagination that overlooked the problems cascading from the loss of the iron ore and coalfield industrial regions of northeastern France. The Wikipedia entry for the occupied portions of France notes that: "...the occupied zone included some of the most industrialized parts of France: 64 percent of France's pig-iron production, 24 percent of its steel manufacturing and 40 percent of the total coal mining capacity was located in the zone, representing a major setback for the French industry."


So What You're Saying Is That France Had Ninety-nine Problems and Plan XVII was Only One?

Yes.

I'm not saying that the war plan - or the development of the plan - wasn't a problem that led to French defeats along the frontiers in August. 

It just wasn't THE problem.

And of the other-than-planning problems of the Frontiers fights the single biggest failure was in the operations around what has become known as the Battle of the Ardennes between 21 and 23 AUG 1914. 

And of that failure the failure of the French reconnaissance and security forces to figure out who was where doing what, and their German opposite numbers who succeeded, well...that's where we're headed.

But before we get there, we need to look at those forces, the people on the ground and in the air, who were tasked with finding out what their enemies were up to, and denying those enemies the same knowledge of their own people.


Next: Scouts Out!

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Decisive Battles: Frontiers 1914 - Part 1: How Did We Get Here?

This entry is a bit unusual in the "Battles" series, so let me take a moment to discuss my intentions.


The Beginnings:

The origins of this series go back over a decade, to the 2009 piece on the 1914 First Battle of the Marne. 

In the course of researching and writing that article my attention was drawn to the tactical issues that arose from both combatants' mis- (or lack of) understanding of their opponents. A lot of the "whys" of the Marne ran directly from the failure of strategic and/or tactical reconnaissance.

To make a long story short (and for the long story the linked Marne piece is worth a look) German operational success required knowing where the left end of the Entente' line ended (in order to envelop it), while the Entente' needed to prevent that and to figure out where and what the German right wing was doing.

Neither side really accomplished either of their reconnaissance or security objectives, and the result was the chaotic collision that we call the Marne.

The question that I kept coming back to was...why not?

Was the problem baked into the larger operational or even the strategic planning? 

Was this the result of both sides' failure to anticipate the tactical "facts on the ground" affecting reconnaissance and making plans that assumed conditions that no longer existed?

Or was it technical, the conditions themselves, that had changed beyond the ability of clever plans to account for them? Was the problem that the older means and methods of reconnaissance - horse cavalry and light infantry - and security were just no longer effective in the tactical environment of 1914, and the new techniques - air reconnaissance - un- or under-developed to the point where the commanders didn't receive (or were unable to process) the intelligence?

Those questions just hung out there, unanswered.

The Sequelae:

So for the following years I kind of kept this curiosity in the vest pocket, as it were. Both because I had other engagements I wanted to explore, and because it seemed like a massive and difficult task to research and write.

Slowly, though, I worked through the other "battles" pieces, to the point where I'm down to a mix of the "sort of peripheral interest topics" - that is, stuff I'm only vaguely interested in discussing, like Manzikert (important historically, fairly boring tactically) or Sekigara (important historically, more about treachery and clan rivalries that actual fighting) - or stuff like this, difficult and time-consuming.

I'm retired now, so the "time" component is kind of peripheral. I have the time if I want to use it for this.

And the difficulty?

Well...I decided to go ahead and tackle it, with the understanding that if I try and write this as a single one-off post it would be insane; I'd be writing it and you'd be reading it during the heat-death of the Universe.

So.

The Plan:

I laid this out in the last post. It's to:

Focus is on the reconnaissance and security aspects of the battle(s); specifically,
1) What were the requirements for intelligence, from tactical up to strategic intelligence, (that is, reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance) for the opposing sides plans to succeed. Or in simple terms, what did each commander need to know about his opponent (and need to deny his opponent knowledge of) to achieve their operational objectives?,
1a) Which implies at least a brief discussion of the opposing plans and objectives,
2) What resources were available to the commanders to perform these recon and counter-recon tasks?
3) What recon/counter-recon operations were planned to use those assets in ways to accomplish those tasks, and
4) How well did the opposing organizations and commanders at crafting those plans, and carrying them out?

I'm still working up a frame for this. My guess is that it will include:
1a) a post on the general conditions leading up to August 1914
1b) a post on the German Army and the Revised Schlieffen Plan
1c) a post on the French Army and Plan XVII

2) a post on the recon elements of the opposing forces; cavalry and air assets - number, composition, organization, training and doctrine

3) a post on the opening days of the war - from 1 AUG 1914 to about 21 AUG and the performance of the recon/counter-recon elements during the opening phases

4) a post on the actions on the central portions of the front (Battle of the Ardennes), 21-23 AUG

5) a post on the actions to the west (Mons/ Charleroi) during 21-23 AUG, and

6) a post on "The Great Retreat" and the lead-in to First Marne, 24 AUG-5 SEP.

This is Post 1a, then - taking us up to the plans of the opposing forces that kicked off in August 1914.


So...How DID We Get Here?

The Marne post is a good place to start as a tl:dr version of the lead-up to 1914. The diplomatic and political backstory pretty much comes down to:

1. For a huge portion of the late Medieval and early Modern periods France was the major continental European Great Power. The reasons - political, demographic, economic, and military - were many and varied, but the result was that if there was something going on in the European heartland France usually had a finger (or an arm, or it's whole ass) in it.

2) To the east of the Rhine France's monkey business typically ran into one or more of the German states; Austria first, in the 17th Century, then Austria and Prussia in the 18th, then Prussia in the bulk of the 19th.

3) By the late 19th Century France was the bogeyman and rival of the rising German power of Prussia. Otto Bismarck, the architect of German (as opposed to Prussian) nationhood, used that to herd the cats of the multifarious German statelets into a "German Empire" 

4) This process led to war in 1870, and the resulting French debacle - which we discussed back in 2012 with the Battle of Sedan - and punitive diplomatic settlement of the Treaty of Frankfurt left Germany strutting as the Great Power of mittelEuropa and France stuffed with angry, bitter French itching for revenge.

5) This anger produced a series of French diplomatic maneuvers that forged new connections (with imperial Russia) and broke down old enmities (with Great Britain) that shifted the balance of European power and intensified the dangers of a general European war.

6) While the British were largely driven into the Entente by German naval ambitions (Bob Massie's 1991 work Dreadnought is essential for this) the autocratic imperial Russian government was willing to align with egalitarian republican France for several reasons, not all of them military. 

Russian industrialization had been heavily bankrolled by German investment, which had fallen away as German industry, much of it military, absorbed more and more Reichsmarks. Thrifty France had francs to replace those marks.

As part of his diplomatic planning to keep Germany secure Bismarck had doped up something called the "Reinsurance Treaty" with the Russians (needed after problems between Russia and Germany's ally Austria-Hungary over fuckery in the Balkans had broken up the earlier German-Austrian-Russian Dreikaiserbund). 

The treaty - which was kept secret from both the publics and the national legislatures - promised that the two Powers would stay neutral if the other got into a Great Power war (sorta - it was void if Germany attacked France or Russia attacked Austria-Hungary). Still; it secured much of Russia's western borders and kept the two from giving each other the constant side-eye.

When German Emperor Wilhelm II shitcanned Bismarck in 1888 Bismarck's successors didn't bother to renew the Reinsurance Treaty in 1890. This opened up a can of military and diplomatic worms that the Russians dealt with by looking to France for support, especially as things with Austria-Hungary in the Balkans got ever sketchier.

So as the 20th Century opened Europe had congealed into two major Power axes; one around France and Russia along with Britain - the "Triple Entente" - and the other around Germany and Austria-Hungary along with the Ottomans and notionally Italy, notionally the "Triple Alliance" but commonly termed the "Central Powers".

To me the oddest part of the run-up to war was the German attachment to the ramshackle Hapsburg empire. The German ambassador to Vienna summed up the problem: "...is it worth it to attach ourselves...to this state which is almost falling apart and...continue the exhausting work of pulling it along with us..?"

Because the two couldn't have been more unlike; powerful, efficient, militarized Germany, and struggling, haphazard, obsolescent Austria-Hungary. Why did the German government cling to the Austr0-Hungarians?


Strange Bedfellows

The problems with Austria-Hungary as an ally were;
1) It was a mess politically, a patchwork of ethnicity and polities pasted together by Hapsburg dynastic rule, militarily suspect - its army was likewise divided by language and ethnic incomprehension - and the product of generations of defeats by, most recently, the Germans themselves. The government in Vienna was antiquated and inefficient. But...
2) ...the Royal and Imperial ('konigliche und kaiserliche", usually abbreviated as "k.u.k.") regime in Vienna brought with it an ugly quilt of old quarrels and hostilities; with the small states of the Balkans, with Italy (much of which had been Austrian before unification), with the Ottomans, and with Russia.

The single biggest problem was that the k.u.k. was a 15th Century answer to the question of "how should a state be defined?". 

In 1450 saying "By the ruling house" would have been accepted by the ruled - Hungarians and Croats and Slovaks and Poles regardless of from where that house arose, so for the k.u.k. congeries to exist because it had been a Hapsburg county or dukedom or electorship or bishopric for centuries was generally jake with the locals.

In 1914? No. Nationalism had been rising throughout the 19th Century, Czechs wanted to be Czech, Poles Polish, Bosniaks Bosnian, Hungarians Hungarian. The consensus that had kept the Royal and Imperial domains together was fraying.

So why did many German authorities - the Emperor, ministers, diplomats, politicians - persist in trying their rising power to the falling one?

I get the sense that it was mostly a "what we can get" rather than "the best we can get" sort of settling. Here's Tschirschky, the German ambassador from abive, continuing: "But I cannot see any other constellation that could replace the still-existing advantages in an alliance with the Central European power." 

The problem with that was that the Austrians were not truly a particularly advantageous power and definitely not a controllable one. Germany's prewar Chancellor von Bülow said later that the crucial part of the alliance for Germany was: "...letting Austria drag us, against our will, into a world war." 

Which, of course, it did.


Why?

As I've discussed repeatedly, the reasons for the decisions and acts that led to war are so complex and multivariate as to provide material for decades of academic study and volumes of popular prose, as far beyond the scope of this essay. Ambition, distraction, uglification...hubris, mistakes, fear, anger...and that is as nations, peoples, and governments, leaving out the influence of individual character.

But to me the single biggest factor was the failure - on all sides but particularly in Austria-Hungary - to recognize the changes in warfare that had been going on over the preceding century.

The industrialization and mechanization of combat, and the vastly inflated human and material needs that would demand, had made the artisanal warfare of the 19th Century as quaint and useless as a wooden gearbox inside a cuckoo clock. 

All the major combatants underestimated the effects both on their tactics and strategies as well as their economies, but none so disastrously as Austria-Hungary.

The initial confrontation between Serbia and Austria surely looked to the k.u.k hierarchy like the same old damn thing in the Balkans they'd been doing like, well, forever.

But.

When Russia mobilized in support of Serbia - indeed, the very likelihood that Russia would mobilize - that should have given pause to the Austrians. 

A war with Serbia was one thing (albeit one that went shockingly poorly for Austria, a reminder of how badly the k.u.k Generalstab had prepared for the war...), a war with Russia and, by implication, a general European war, was very, very much another.

The Austrians didn't get that. So, regardless of the danger, the combination of treaty obligations, political calculation, "national honor", error, and miscalculation, brought the major combatants to the start line on 1 AUG 1914, and from there across it into war.

And that's where we're going next; into the war plans of the three nations that were going to collide along the Franco-Belgian borders with Germany, beginning with the German scheme we know as the Schlieffen Plan.

Next: Keep the Right Wing Strong.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Decisive Battles: Rhineland 1936

Reoccupation of the Rhineland (Unternehmen Winterübung) Dates: 7 MAR 1936



Note: This is, again, a very different sort of "Battles" post. The engagement it discusses never occurred; the events of March 1936 are typically discussed in the diplomatic and policy histories of the pre-WW2 period because although the Rhineland Crisis was about armed force and where it was and could be applied the actual "engagement" was between the various governments and diplomats. The military aspects of the event are usually addressed, if at all, only cursorily. And it is that I wish to explore in this post. What WERE the military positions of the two main parties in this conflict, France and Germany? Could there have, in fact, been a fight over Hitler's first gamble? And, if so, what might have that battle wrought? While based on what I can discover about the actual dispositions and plans of the armed forces on both sides, this is, then, a counterfactual, a battle that was never fought and whose lessons we cannot learn.

But are there, perhaps, lessons to be learned from that non-battle? WHY was it never fought? What were the reasons the two armies never met that spring of 1936, and were they primarily military, or political, or economic? And are there lessons to be learned from those reasons?

Given that most students of the period consider that the events of 1936 were critical in the rise of Nazi Germany that led to the Second World War, I thought that an examination of this event was a worthy entry in the "decisive battles" series.

Forces Engaged: Deutsches Reich (Germany) - forces actively engaged in the military operation - code named Operation "Winter Crossing"; Unternehmen Winterübung - of 7 MAR 1936 consisted of a total of 19 battalions of regular infantry supported by 156 cannon in 13 units (from battery to battalion size) as well as a small air support element.



Of this force, itself numbering probably no more than about 15,000 infantry and 5,000 artillerymen, three infantry battalions (probably about a total of between 2,000 and 3,000 infantrymen) actually crossed the river Rhine and proceeded to the international border:

2nd Battalion, 39th Infantry to Aachen on the Belgian border,
1st Battalion, 38th Infantry to Trier on the border with Luxemburg, and
either II/38th Infantry or II/17th Infantry to Saarbrucken along the border with France.

Elements of the Leibstandarte SS (Adolf Hitler) infantry are reported to have accompanied the Heer element that deployed to Saarbrucken.

However, the German plans called for the "activation" of additional forces in place. The Landespolizei, the equivalent of U.S. State Police forces, was nationalized and incorporated into what eventually became four German regular infantry divisions; the overall number of Landespolizei is estimated to have been about 14,000.

Paramilitary forces also included Nazi organizations such as the Sturmabteilungen or SA, the Nationalsozialistische Kraftfahrkorps (or NSKK),

the "Labor Corps" (or RAD - the Nazis loved them some acronyms...) as well even older members of the Hitlerjugend. Even then, this grab-bag of odds-and-Nazi-sods would probably have not numbered more than several thousand. But these jobbersons loomed large in the minds of the French Army commanders, as we will see.

So the actual maneuver forces available had there been a battle for the Rhineland totaled approximately 36,500 all arms (but nearly two-thirds of that total consisted of poorly armed and trained policemen), 156 cannon (typically 105mm and 150mm fieldpieces) and a small unit of light bombers and fighters and about 500 Luftwaffe troops. But, as we'll see in a bit, the larger German operations plan included a much broader depth of support and was genuinely designed for warfighting. The popular accounts describe the Rhineland force as token; this was not the case, and the German Army would have been able, and planned, to fight if challenged.

République Française (Third French Republic) - Perhaps the most shocking part of the whole Rhineland business is that on 7 MAR 1936 the French Army, 340,000 strong on paper (to Germany's roughly 300,000), had no substantial maneuver forces available for a countermove to push the Germans back out of the Rhineland.



You're probably aware, at least in outline, of the course of military strategy in France (towards Germany, at any rate) between the wars. The losses of the First World War had sickened both the Army and the nation. The public had little enthusiasm for fighting, and a series of political and economic moves, such as reducing conscript service to just a single year (begun in 1928) had reduced both overall Army strength as well as the troops available for maneuver warfare.

I have been unable to find an order of battle for the French Army in 1936, but in 1939 (when the threat of war with Germany was was much more obvious) France had only 20 regular infantry divisions. Of these seven had been "motorized" infantry divisions (1ere, 3eme, 5eme, 9eme, 12eme, 15eme, and 25eme Division d'Infantrie Motorisée or DIM) since 1935.

The remainder of the regular infantry divisions (Divisions d'Infantrie or DI) were leg infantry units - I'm guessing probably less then 13 and possibly as few as 6 or 7 in '36 - that included 3 mountain infantry divisions (27eme, 29eme, 31ere Division d'Infantrie Alpins) which were effectively permanently stationed along the Alps on the southern German and Italian borders.

A total of about two divisions (increased to five by 1939) worth of troops were spread along the Maginot fortifications in penny packets. The Régiments d'Infantrie Fortresse or RIF were effectively immobile strategically; any movement beyond the French border would have to be on foot, and they had not trained at maneuvering in the field.

The remaining infantry was divided into regulars posted to the colonies overseas, colonial troops, and reserves; both were effectively unavailable without general mobilization.

France in 1936 had four cavalry divisions (1ere, 2eme, and 3eme Division d'Cavalrie) and a single Division Legere Motorisée or "Light Motorized Division" and eventually a "Light Mechanized Division" or Division Legere Mecanique) that at the time was assigned to 4th Cavalry Division because it was not a true armored unit. The DLM was a motorized unit manned by dragons portees or lorried infantry.

The French armored force of '36 was a fucking disaster.

Individually both the French tankers and their tanks (the Char B1 was one of the better AFVs of the interwar period) were fairly capable. But the overall French tank force was a shambles. In 1934 37 out of a total of 40 bataillon de char de combat were still equipped with the old WWI Renault FT-17. But, worse, the French armor hadn't learned the lessons of Spain or paid heed to the doctrines of Fuller and Guderian (and their own pundits Estienne and de Gaulle) about the employment of tanks en masse.



To give you an idea, when Germany finally attacked in May, 1940 France had about 3,000 various AFVs, about equal to the number of tanks in the ten German armored divisions. But of that total less than 1,000 were grouped on the 7 Division Cuirassée de Réserve (DCR, genuine armored divisions) and DLMs. The remaining 2,000-odd tanks were spread out all over fucking hell in all kind of units of battalion and even company size.

French artillery - as you might expect for the arm that the French Army believed had effectively won the last war - was still formidable. This included, just as an example of a standard infantry division; two artillery regiments; a régiment d'artillerie divisionnaire or RAD, consisting of 24 x 75mm howitzers in three battalions and a régiment d'artillerie lourde divisionnaire (RALD) of 24 x 155mm cannon in two battalions, two Batterie Divisionaire Anti-Aérienne (BDAA, the divisional AA battery consisting of 6x 25mm antiaircraft guns) and two Batterie Divisionaire Anti-Char (BDAC, consisting of 8x 47mm Model 1937 or 75mm Model 1897/33 antitank guns)

By 1940 France also had a total of 21 non-divisional artillery regiments with cannon ranging from 75mm to 280mm, two independent artillery companies and a superheavy (railway gun) artillery regiment. In 1940 the French Army had roughly 10,000 field artillery pieces of all calibers in all units. The totals for 1936 would have been smaller but still, this is a powerful artillery force.

So on paper the French Army still looked like the best in Europe.

However, even assuming that France had been willing to push a force into the Rhineland - and we'll see why that was problematic at best - it would have taken several weeks to assemble and move this force to the border. The force strength would probably have been no more than even with that of the German Army units on the east side of the Rhine; assume that it would have included 1ere DLM, at least one of the DCs, and 2-4 DI. That force would have consisted of between 30,000-40,000 all arms and included probably 40-60 tanks, 100-200 artillery pieces of all calibers, and a token air support contingent.

But no such force existed, and we'll talk about the why of that after talking about the resources available to the researcher interested in the military aspects of the Rhineland Campaign.

The Sources: Let me start by saying that if you are interested in the Rhineland Crisis itself there are a large number of very good references. My work is largely based on three published sources;

The first and most useful was J.T. Emmerson's 1977 work The Rhineland Crisis 7 March 1936 A Study in Multilateral Diplomacy. This was difficult to track down, having been out of print since 1977, and is almost exclusively focused (as the title states) on the diplomatic aspects of the crisis. Still, perhaps the most complete work on the subject published since the opening of the French government archives in the mid-Seventies. Earlier works such as Shirer's lack these primary sources and suffer from that lack.

The two other works gave additional details of the two main contestants. Jean-Baptiste Duroselle's 2004 France and the Nazi Threat, The Collapse of French Diplomacy 1932-1939 provided a valuable look at the western side of the border, while Gerhard Weinberg's 1970 work The Foreign Policy of Hitler's Germany was useful in getting over to the German side of the hill.

I tried to track down a third that was highly recommended: Robert Young's 1970 work In Command of France: French Foreign Policy and Military planning, 1933-1940 but was unable to in the time available for me preceding this post. Something for another day, perhaps.

On the Web several sources proved valuable.

For the French Army of the late Thirties (as it entered the Battle of France) David Lehmann's French Armament 1939-1940 proved an invaluable resource to late pre-War French Army organization and equipment. I could find very little on the Army of 1936, and the Lehmann work provided at least a way to make an intelligent guesstimate to French Army strengths and order of battle.

I was able to unearth two rather worthwhile sources for French Army policy and politics of the Thirties;

Elizabeth Keir's 1996 Culture and French Military Doctrine Before World War II, found here in PDF format, and

The French Army in the Interwar Period, a 2009 paper from Baltic Security and Defence Review v. 11 Issue 2 by Igors Rajevs. Both these provided useful insights into the information available to the French Army high command (Grand Quartier General, or GQG) in 1936 that led to the decisionmaking of the Army Chief, Gamelin, and his co-equals of the Navy and Air Force.

Another rather interesting online source for the French Army of the Thirties is behind the registration wall at JSTOR: The French Army, 1936 a scan of the article written by GEN René Tournès for Foreign Affairs Vol. 14, No. 3 (Apr., 1936). It is interesting primarily as an artifact of the spirit of the French Army of the times. Tournès, whose position in the French Army at the time he published this essay I cannot determine, grossly inflates the size and competence of the army of Nazi Germany:
"...by the end of 1935 the German General Staff had created ten army corps, consisting of twenty-four infantry divisions, three mechanized divisions, two divisions of cavalry, a total of around 480,000 men. To these must be added other regular forces (Landespoleizei, Schutzstaffeln)...plus the 200,000 men in the "Labor Service." By the end of 1936...Germany will then have a peacetime army...of 700,000 men of whom 260,000 will be professional soldiers."
Tournès contrasts this with poor Marianne's measly little 340,000 or so regulars and so makes the case for a general mobilization if war with Germany appeared imminent. Kind of sad, isn't it, knowing as we do that actual German strengths were barely that of the French regular army and those incompletely trained and led.

His attitude was not an isolated one in the French Army of 1936...

Another worthwhile source of information on the technical and tactical capabilities of the opposing forces is James Corum's 1994 paper A Clash of Military Cultures: German and French Approaches to Technology Between the World Wars found here in pdf format.

The bulk of the websites outside those mentioned above are all rather similar to the Wiki entry; fairly comprehensive regarding the diplomatic and political events of the Crisis with little if any information on the military actions of the campaign.

The Campaign: The "campaign" that led to the events of 7 MAR 1936 really began at Versailles in 1919. There the European Allies resolved to force a victor's peace on the Weimar government of Germany even though that government was not the one that had been in place when the war began. Along with instilling a deep resentment in the minds of many Germans the Treaty instilled a harsh physical reminder of defeat; the western portion of Germany was to be demilitarized; no German soldier or other military object (such as barracks, ranges, training areas, or fortifications) was permitted in the area that comprised the borderlands with France, Belgium, and Luxemburg.

This area consisted of all of German territory west of the Rhine; all of the Länder (states) of Saarland and Rheinland-Pfalz as well as parts of Nordrhein-Westfalen. The forbidden area also extended 60 kilometers east of the Rhine, into parts of the states of Hessen and more of Nordrhein-Westfalen.

The portion of the Treaty that did this was Articles 42 and 43 of Part 3, Section 3. Article 42 prohibited Germany from fortifying this area, while Article 43 stated that "...the maintenance and the assembly of armed forces...and military manoevers of any kind, as well as the upkeep of all permanent works of mobilization, are...forbidden."



France was also determined to extract payment for her war dead and the destruction of northeastern France and demanded and received a fifteen year occupation of much of this portion of western Germany, as well as the largest of the occupation zones that were established in the Rhineland and set to run from 1920 to 1935.

The British, Belgian, and American forces were also part of the occupying armies. These nations had little interest in putting the boot in, hung around just long enough to pull a fairly half-hearted shift, and were gone from the Rhineland by the mid Twenties.

But the French were serious; the dead of Verdun and the ruined lands around Toul, Belfort, and Nancy assured that.

Not only did they remain in their occupation zone well into the Twenties but when Germany defaulted on her Versailles reparations France (and Belgium) sent their occupation troops further into Germany to seize the industrial heart of their old enemy. The occupation of the Ruhrgebeit lasted from 1923 to 1925 and further irked the German people, rubbed their military weakness into the face of the Weimar government, and provided lovely propaganda for the hard-Right parties of the Reichstag as well as the fascist brawlers of the German street.

By the mid Twenties, though. even France was tiring of the aggravation and expense of the Occupation. At Locarno, Switzerland, four former Allied Powers - France, Great Britain, Italy, and Belgium - agreed with Germany on a group of measures principally intended to reduce the tension between France and Germany.



As part of this so-called Locarno Treaty the signatories reaffirmed Articles 42 and 43, and required that a breach of peace (for at Locarno Germany, France, and Belgium also agreed not to attack or invade one another, a stipulation that had not been a formal part of Versailles) be submitted to the League of Nations as well as contested by the other Locarno nations.

The French occupation then ended five years early, in the summer of 1930.



The Occupation had satisfied no one, not even the French public. Little as they liked or trusted the Germans, the harshness of the Poincaré government's policies (especially the extension of the Occupation into the Ruhr) and the resulting shift in much of Europe's opinion from France towards the "poor battered" Germans had exhausted the patience of the French electorate; Poincaré "the War" (la Guerre) was defeated in 1924.

Emmerson (1977) makes a good point about the Rhineland issue; "It was in the demilitarized zone that the Rhine pact (that is, the Locarno Treaty) was weakest, since, in the eyes of everyone but Paris, the prohibitions contained in articles 42-43 were not taken as seriously as the sections preserving the territorial integrity of France, Belgium, and Germany. The French, however, insisted in treating the demilitarization provisions as essential to their security." So the Rhineland was, in fact, a wedge between the former Allies ; seen as crucial to France but negotiable, even trivial, to the others.

Clearly, the Machtergreifung of 1933 changed the tenor of Franco-German relations. The new Chancellor had repeatedly railed against the iniquities of Versailles and insisted on the return of the territories separated from Germany under that treaty, such as the Sudetenland and the Polish Corridor (and the Rhineland).



But Hitler "...repeatedly reaffirmed his intention of keeping the terms of that treaty (Locarno) and within Germany insisted that such preliminary steps...toward remilitarizing the Rhineland be kept secret and to a minimum." (Weinberg, 1970). In 1933 and 1934 the German Army and Air Force were still too small and the newly raised Army units not trained enough to risk open warfare. Tensions over the Rhineland were slow to rise.

But we know now - and French observers of the time suspected - that by 1935 Hitler was beginning to get itchy about the Rhineland insult.

A large part of the timing of the German chancellor's impatience was due to the Franco-Soviet "Mutual Assistance" Treaty signed in May 1935.

This agreement, in large part designed by French Foreign Minister Louis Barthou as a means of responding to and defending against Germany in the wake of Hitler's open rejection of the military restrictions of Versailles in 1934, pledged the Soviet Union and France to "...immediately lend each other reciprocal aid and assistance." in case of attack.

In the sort of blowback that this kind of thing often provokes the pact, instead of making France more secure, had the effect of irking many of the other Locarno powers. Although it was worded so as to respect the Locarno agreement the intent was obviously to provide a two-front war to encircle Germany in the case of a blowup with France. And the USSR was still very much an anathema to the western European powers such as Italy and Britain. While not resulting in an open rupture between France and either of the other two nations, the Soviet pact was another irritant between them.

Late in 1935 French intelligence sources were reporting that they believed that some sort of German move in the Rhineland was inevitable. In December 1935 Hitler met with the British ambassador (on a different matter) and stated publicly that the Rhineland should be fully part of the Reich.

So the stage was set; a resurgent Germany led by a man whose public credibility rested on regaining the pieces of Germany lost to Versailles facing a France riven by political disunity, still harrowed by the First World War, and battered (as we'll see) by economic troubles. France's allies, particularly Great Britain, had little enthusiasm for war over the demilitarized zone. And the one organization with the brief to maintain that zone, the French Army, was a deeply troubled outfit whose leaders had a very skewed picture of their German adversary as well as internal issues that almost overwhelmed the external threat.



The Plans: Germany - Emmerson states that seven potential means of remilitarizing the Rhineland were available to the Hitler government in March 1936:
"The first three involved a simple announcement renouncing the Locarno treaty...But these were apparently not considered, presumably because they were only half-measures. Another alternative would have involved piecemeal occupation, executed through a series of minor infringements, until de facto remilitarization would have been achieved. But this would have taken time and carried a high risk of detection...

It would, however, have been possible to declare that the 14,000 men of the Landespolizei within the zone had been incorporated into the army, thus creating a fait accompli without having moved a single soldier. One can only speculate, but it seems in keeping with Hitler's character that this was precisely the reason why this alternative was not followed. He wanted people to see fighters over Köln cathedral and to hear the Rhine bridges reverberate with the sound of marching columns...Soldiers would make any forceful French reaction a matter for the entire German nation, including, especially, the generals...

The remaining alternatives were either to march in with sufficient strength to put up a determined defence or to employ only a token force in the operation. Even though Hitler professed to believe that the opposition would not react forcefully, he obviously did not wish to risk frightening the French people...(or) to given (French premier) Flandrin an obvious legal right to immediate retaliation."
One widely cited misconception about the German plan is that the token nature of the force meant that it was expected to flee immediately had the French Army moved against it. This notion is a critical part of the "Rhineland story", largely because Hitler claimed it was true.



Hitler is quoted as saying "The forty-eight hours after the march into the Rhineland were the most nerve-racking in my life. If the French had then marched into the Rhineland we would have had to withdraw with our tails between our legs, for the military resources at our disposal would have been wholly inadequate for even a moderate resistance."

Frankly, this seems to me like Hitler trying to impress someone with his steely nerve and his political acumen. In fact, when he made the statement to Austrian chancellor von Schuschnigg in February 1938, he put it differently; "If France had marched then we would have had to withdraw, perhaps about 60 kilometers; even then we would have held them."

The documentary record supports the conclusion that the Rhineland force was not as feeble as usually described. The withdrawal orders (issued as contingency plans during the OPORD briefings on 2-3 MAR 1936) included instructions for the three advance battalions to execute not a retreat but a retrograde maneuver to prepared positions where they were instructed to fight a delaying action. The overall operation commander, GEN Blomberg, instructed the force that actions in response to an Allied incursion should be
"...in accordance with Aufmarsch Rot, dated July 10, 1935. which was defined as a 'general order for concentration and battle.' It envisioned a fighting retreat to the Roer-Rhine-Black Forest line, where the army was expected to hold the enemy advance (den feindlichen Vormarsch aufzuhalten) and, according to 1934 instructions, compel the enemy to abandon its war aims (zum Aufgeben seines Kreigszieles)." (Emmerson, 1977)
Emmerson (1977) also notes that the small Rhineland force was allotted a substantial backup: 4 Armeekorps of 13 infantry divisions that included all of the 3-division armored force and sizable artillery support.



I can't emphasize how significant this is in reconsidering the Rhineland Crisis. We will talk about this at length when we get to the actual conduct of the second week of March 1936.

France - The French plans for a move against the German actions would have been organized around their war plan of the time, Plan D bis. This plan, in effect since 15 APR 1935, "...called for three series of "precautionary" measures allowing deployment of the "covering units" (the French Army's mobile reserve) in 23 days." (Duroselle, 2004). But it is worth noting that these measures were almost completely defensive.

- A "Simple Alert" called the regular Army to their marshaling areas (and fully manned the Maginot Line).

- A "Reinforced Alert" called up the reservists in the units along the threatened border, about 35,000 troops all arms.

- A "Security" level mobilization included activation and deployment of the entire Regular Army and a large (120,000) reserve activation, and

- "Reinforced Security" - Full mobilization, which activated the entire Army, at least 1.2 million to as many as 3 million troops.



The French Army in 1936 reflected the deep division in French society and French politics in 1936. The regular Army was considered loyal to, and a military arm, of the Right (ranging from Monarchists to the conservative factions aligned around the Catholic Church to outright fascists of the Le Pen variety). And the longer a Frenchman served the more (at least the conservatives believed) he was likely to place his loyalty to his Army above his civilian counterparts.
"A soldier who has served (with the Regular Army) for one year...has not learned to obey;"
said the conservative deputy de Choiseul,
"his character has not been subjugated, his will has not been broken; he has not yet become what makes an army strong: passive obedience." (Keir, 1995)

Reserves were considered to be more likely to owe their political allegiance to the Left.

Schemes to increase the size of the Regulars were usually derided and often defeated by the leftist factions in government. The French Left, the socialists and communists as well as the left-leaning factions of the social democratic parties, saw the regulars as potential jackboots and internal oppressors for the French Right. This was reflected in measures such as the reduction in conscript service from two years to one. The idea was that a less-trained reservist was a less-stormtrooper-sort of reservist, one less likely to shoot down strikers or leftist revolutionaries as they had in 1848 and 1871.
"Public duty (in a professional soldier) is replaced by hierarchical obedience."
said the socialist minister Leon Blum in 1934,
"National solidarity is replaced by professional solidarity."
The GQG, however, considered that offensive maneuvering was too difficult technically and tactically for one-year reservists or almost all reservists for that matter.



One of the main reasons that the 1934 de Gaulle blueprint for Army modernization was so explosive is that the future President proposed that his armored force would be manned entirely by regulars. Vers l'Armée de Métier (Towards the Army of the Future) called for 100,000 long-service regulars to serve in a mobile army similar to those advocated by Fuller and later by Guderian and Manstein; it was widely ignored. When introduced as a military concept to the national assembly in 1937 it was roundly defeated. The Left and Right in France were poisonously opposed; no modernization of the Army could occur without a complete change in the political chemistry of the nation. And the Army itself was battered this way and that by the poisonous politics of Left and Right. Safety, if there was any to be had, lay in sticking to what the Army knew, what had worked the last time that France was united by war.

So the French Army of 1936 was still, perhaps of all the European armed forces, the most similar to its First World War tactical image. The magic words were Battaille Conduite; "Methodical Battle" and the tactical manual was Petain's 1921 Provisional Instructions for the Tactical Employment of Larger Units.

This set of instructions emphasized linear defense and slow, deliberate attack supported by ponderous artillery preparation;
"The infantry would move forward by short bounds of 5 kilometers or so, under massive artillery support, and at that point, the advance would halt in accordance with specific phase lines, so that the artillery could deploy forward, and the battle could be rejoined, on successive days. Within the carefully coordinated circumstances of a set-piece offensive, battle would involve all Arms to assist the infantry: "The infantry is charged with the principal mission in combat. Preceded, protected, and accompanied by artillery fire, aided where possible by tanks and aviation, it conquers, occupies, organizes, and holds the terrain."
So the purely military obstacles to French offensive response to Hitler's Rhineland move - completely absent any other considerations - were considerable.

Mobilization was slow and expensive. Once mobilized, the troop units couldn't move faster than the walking pace of a man or a horse other than by rail.

And it had been years since any French unit had exercised offensive maneuvers in the open field.

This was the army that would have to carry out the will of the French government if it decided to fight over the Rhineland.



The Engagement: While records indicate that Hitler was discussing moving troop units across the Rhine as early as January or February 1936 the operational security of both the Reichskanzleri and OKW was excellent. Planning for Unternehmen Winterübung was kept to the minimum needed to prepare the orders which were issued on 2 MAR 1936 with the date for crossing the line of departure still undetermined; in fact, the date of 7 MAR would not be settled until the preceding Thursday. Although the French Deuxième Bureau had rumors and hints of rumors no hard intelligence escaped.



Much as with the later attack on Pearl Harbor, the date for the operation was set to fall on a weekend when the news cycle would be at its slowest and most of the Allied governments home for the weekend. The actual movement was covered by an intense screen of diplomatic smoke; Hitler's address to the Reichstag was full of the usual pledges of peace and goodwill, and the German ambassadors to London and Paris assured their hosts that the move was purely administrative, a mere rectification of an overstep of the Versailles protocols.

The actual scheme of maneuver was simple; the three battalions marched across the Rhine bridges (the tale that they were shipped back east to march across again appears to be later embroidery) and presumably then boarded troop trains for their frontier destinations. The remainder of the force simply advanced into the east bank exclusion zone, fell out and had a nice C-ration (or the German equivalent) lunch.



The entire operation was designed to minimize the actual warlike elements. It was a movement, not a maneuver. Once in place even the small forward elements did nothing of any real military value; they simple took a break in place and waited.

For all that the German forces now settling in, either behind the Rhine for the majority or in their advanced positions for the troopers of the three battalions sent to the borders, had plans and instructions to fight the memory of the destructive power of the Allied artillery, tanks, and waves of infantry must have made the German commanders nervous. Hitler, who was surer than anyone in Germany that his roll of the iron die would win, himself had some nervous moments. The two most dangerous enemy courses of action would have been; first and less hazardous a countermove by French troops into the Rhineland but, second and worse, a joint ultimatum from the Allied Powers backed with a general mobilization. Would the French move and, if they did, would the British and Belgians join them?

Could the French Army have moved?

Certainly some ministers in the French government had considered quick reaction. A February Quai d'Orsay (French Foreign Ministry) memo read, in part; "It is appropriate to see which precautions or responses should be prepared in the very short term, should Germany take any initiative to unilaterally breach the status of the demilititerized zone. It is up to the Minister of War to make recommendations." (Duroselle, 2004)

This very question was raised in a meeting at the Ministry of War on 7 FEB; Premier Flandrin raised the issue of countermeasures but the service chiefs in attendance made no response. The answer, such as it was, came in the form of a letter from GQG dated 12 FEB and signed by Maurin, the Minister of War, which included a recommendation of "reducing the number of measures now planned to a minimum...in order to avoid offering any real excuse for a conflict." (Duroselle, 2004)

This was not because the Rhineland issue was considered trivial or negotiable; Gamelin, the Army Chief of Staff, stated on 19 FEB that maintaining the demilititerized zone was critical until the classes of 1916-1919 passed through the conscription intake; at least 1940-42.
(One factor that affected French military policy in the late Thirties was the strength of the "classes" - 18- and 19-year-olds eligible for conscription - affected by the World War. As you can imagine, between 1915 and 1918 a vast number of Frenchmen were coming and going to war and not ça-va ça-vient, as they might have said; going to bed with madame to make another generation of French soldiers. The wartime classes were the smallest in France since the beginning of the 20th Century, and the relatively weak intakes of 1935-1940 were a consideration no French commander could completely ignore.)

But a number of other issues complicated French response to the German actions.

1. The French Army had a vastly inflated measure of German rearmament. The Tournès article I quoted in the sources gives you the idea. This was not the fault of the intel weenies at the Deuxième Bureau; their estimates in the archives are pretty much spot-on; a mixed bag of about 480,000 all arms with a severe officer shortage - less than 13,000 in 1935. The intel guys had taken a hard look at all the other uniformed Nazi types - the SA, NSKK, RAD - and concluded they were fairly worthless.



But Gamelin's office added all these odds-and-sods into the Winterübung troop totals. That meant that any French reaction force would be facing not 60,000 troops (Gamelin's estimate of the regular German Army formations in the Rhineland on 11 MAR) but almost a quarter of a million; 235,000 and not as a bunch of odd bodies, galvanized cops, and Nazi coalheavers but actual formed and trained troops.

2. From this first error came the second; that any French response might mean a general war with Germany, and that for a general war France would need to mobilize; general mobilization as she had in 1914. Gamelin and the War Minister insisted on full mobilization as the only answer - the grossly inflated troop numbers go a long way to explaining their reasoning.

3. And full mobilization would be fiscally disastrous; 30 million francs per day was GQG's estimate. And this at a time when France was in the midst of a fiscal crisis largely of it's own making.



When many of the Western powers had left the gold standard when it became obvious that it was sinking economies in the Depression France had adhered to it. Meanwhile a new round of economic depression in the middle Thirties had sunk the franc, and without massive bailouts devaluation was likely. The Wiki entry had a fairly good summary of the problems:
"Because France was on the verge of elections scheduled for the spring of 1936, devaluation of the franc, which was viewed as abhorrent by large sections of French public opinion, was rejected by the caretaker government of Premier Albert Sarraut as politically unacceptable. Investor fears of a war with Germany were not conducive to raising the necessary loans to stabilize the franc: the German remilitarization of the Rhineland, by sparking fears of war, worsened the French economic crisis by causing a massive cash flow out of France as worried investors shifted their savings towards what was felt to be safer foreign markets. On March 18, 1936 Wilfrid Baumgartner, the director of the Mouvement général des fonds...reported to the government that France for all intents and purposes was bankrupt. Only by desperate arm-twisting from the major French financial institutions did Baumgartner manage to obtain enough in the way of short-term loans to prevent France from defaulting on her debts and keeping the value of the franc from sliding too far, in March 1936. Given the financial crisis, the French government feared that there were insufficient funds to cover the costs of mobilization, and that a full-blown war scare caused by mobilization would only exacerbate the financial crisis."
So the GQG was unprepared to even present a plan of operations to counter Winterübung; the Flandrin government would get no help from its service chiefs when it needed it most.



The worst-case was even less probable; Great Britain was not having any part of a war with Germany over the Rhineland.

The British public was largely indifferent to the Rhineland and where it was not it rather favored the Germans; Bernard Shaw remarked that it was like Britain reoccupying Portsmouth. In meetings with Premier Flandrin between 11 and 12 MAR Foreign Minister Eden not only refused military action but opposed economic sanctions as well. The Baldwin government stated officially that the economic wherewithal and the public support for war were both lacking.

Belgium had withdrawn from it's secret 1920 military assistance pact with France, as coincidence would have it, on 6 MAR. This secret agreement allowed French troops passage through Belgium as needed as well as Belgian assistance during wartime. The day before the German move into the Rhineland the Belgians retreated into "true" neutrality and cancelled the 1920 agreement.

Italy, the other Locarno partner, was still pissed off about French and British opposition to it's war in Abyssinia and would do nothing; indeed, French troops would be needed on the border with Italy.

Tensions remained high for about two weeks; from 10 to 19 MAR the telegrams and speeches flew about; Hitler threatening and reassuring, Flandrin blustering, Baldwin placating.



It is supposedly during the period 11-13 MAR that the German military, led by the War Minister von Blomberg, got a case of nervous-in-the-service and went to Hitler in a panic insisting he withdraw the troops - at least the three outfits west of the Rhine. This is supposed to be where Hitler refused, and is supposed to be the source of his later distrust of and contempt for the officer corps of the Army outside his personal favorites.

However I can find little documentary support for this. Instead, Emmerson (1977) suggests that the breach came later, in 1937 or '38, and that the Reichskanzler and his generals appeared to have been well satisfied with each other from March 1936 until the following year. Indeed; this researcher suggests that the overall effect of the success of Winterübung was to increase the respect felt by the soldiers for their civilian Leader's geopolitical skills.

On the other side of the border, the politicians and soldiers were not getting along so well.

Premier Flandrin discussed a naval blockade of Bremen and Hamburg, landing marines in the Heligoland, and seizing German ships at sea. The French Navy, still stronger than Germany's at that point, replied that those operations "were as adventurous as that were unproductive." due to issues with security and lack of cooperation from the British. (Duroselle, 2004)

The French Air Force - which was also at that time stronger than the Luftwaffe - refused to consider air attacks without general mobilization because of the vulnerability of Paris to counterattack. All three of the French armed services, one by one, refused to consider the possibility of a fight. Too risky of a general war that French might not win, too expensive, too costly against a German military that the French Army considered much more dangerous that it truly was.

No French troops would leave their barracks. Unternehmen Winterübung had succeeded.



The Outcome: Decisive German strategic victory.



The Impact: We know the impact; Hitler and his coterie were strengthened, the Allied powers discouraged. "Appeasement" became the watchword, and Nazi German aggression continued unchecked until September 1939 when the other European powers could no retreat no further.



Still, it is worth considering the counterfactuals.

The French military might have moved against the German forces in the Rhineland; it is possible that, as many writers and historians have since claimed, that Hitler would have panicked, retreated, lost face and then the election later in March of 1936 and been tossed out onto the junkpile of history.

However, even had the political and economic hurdles the French countermove been overcome, I think it's worth considering that such military move might not have been successful.

What Might a French Countermove Have Looked Like? Let's imagine that, somehow, Flandrin rams through a cabinet motion to send troops into the Rhineland, and the Assembly approves it on 10 MAR 1936. Gamelin obeys, unhappily; ordering one of his senior commanders - Charles Huntziger, say - to assemble a Groupe Mobile to push into the southern part of the Rhineland from Lorraine while the rest of the Army mobilizes in expectation of general war.

It takes nearly two weeks for Huntziger to assemble Second Army, composed of 1ere DLM, 2eme DC, two DIMs (3eme and 5eme) and three DI, and move forward to the line of departure Thionville-Sarreguemines-Bitche. The Air Force provides the 1re Division Aérienne with two Groupements de Bombardement (about 40-50 Amiot 143 light bombers) covered by the 66 SPAD-510s of Groupement de Chasse 21 flying out of airbases around Metz and Nancy. Second Army crosses the international border on 22 MAR 1936; 15 DI demonstrates before Saarbrücken while 1ere DLM and 3eme DIM attack northeast from Thionville and 2eme DC, 5eme DIM, and 7eme DI attack north from the LD Sarreguemines-Bitche.



But II/38th Infantry has already vacated its positions around Saarbrücken having mined the roads and destroyed every bridge they can reach. Stay-behind teams of fanatic Nazis from SS-LAH overwatch roadblocks of felled trees and ditches, sniping and delaying the French columns. Squads of Landespolizei fight delaying actions at every small village between the border and Heusweiler.

It takes eight days for Second Army, advancing behind immense artillery preparations, to reach the phase line Heusweiler-Freidrichsthal. 1ere DLM has taken nearly 8% casualties, mostly from mines and snipers, and there has already been an incident of combat refusal in 15 DI, where a battalion of regulars stopped at the outskirts of Saarbrücken and refused to move forward until artillery had reduced the buildings of the southwestern suburbs to rubble.

The newsreels are aflame with German film of winsome blonde frauleins and loveable grannies fleeing the brutal French barrages and Rhenish farms and towns in ruins. The British and Italians have protested and have stated that they will accuse France as the aggressor before the League in Geneva.

Two weeks later the left wing of Second Army is battering at Trier, where the full regiment of 38th Infantry has a fortified position, while the center and right have barely advanced as far as Idar-Oberstein and Kaiserslauten where they are meeting the lead elements of III Armeekorps. German artillery, rushed forward over the bridges at Mainz and Worms is taking a heavy toll of French infantry, while in the air the small Luftwaffe has effectively fought the 1ere Division Aérienne to a standstill, its He-51 fighters more than a match for the SPADs and devastating to the Amiot bombers; no French raiders have managed to reach either the Moselle or Rhine bridges where the I and III Armeekorps have established defensive positons, the former south of the Moselle and latter west of the Rhine.



When the League demands an armistice on 16 APR the Flandrin government is more than ready to agree.

Would This Have Been Likely? The German Army of 1936 was a good little force based on the professional Reichswehr, it would have been fighting on the defensive and its defensive plans were based on a solid tactical scheme. The French Army, on the other hand, was still locked into the Methodical Battle. Advance would have been slow, and, what's more, extremely destructive. I consider the possibility that a French advance from the southwest might well have stalled as described above quite likely, bogged down between German delaying actions and French tactics; at least as likely as an outright German defeat.

Remember; the Germans didn't have to win per se; they simply had not-to-lose long enough to make the countermove too painful for the French. The costs in obloquy, blood, and treasure might have been heavier than the French public would have been willing to pay; it might have been the Flandrin government, rather than the Hitler government, which fell as a result of a French countermove into the Rhineland.



But the reality is that the Allied nations most concerned; Great Britain, France, and (to an extent) Belgium were not prepared to fight for what they considered no more than a negotiating point. Hitler was not yet seen as...well, Hitler; he was still looked on as just another fascist politician, a German Franco or Mussolini. The horrors of the death camps, of the slave labor factories, and of the sonderkommandos were years in the future.

Emmerson (1977) sums up his view of the lessons of the Rhineland Crisis;

1. A nation that intends to play a role in the world outside its own borders must have a military capability commensurate with its ambitions. France and Britain had allowed that capability to degrade and found that when they needed it it was not available.
(I would go further than that. A nation's defense rests, like a three-legged stool, equally on sound intelligence soundly interpreted, a military that is both capable and tailored to the geopolitical needs of the nation, and a political leadership both clear-sighted and wise - at least wise enough to look at both intelligence and armed force with a realistic appraisal of the strengths and limitations of both.

France in 1936 suffered from problems in all three; the intelligence was there but was not believed by Gamelin; the Army was both tactically immobile and operationally confused, and the politicians were unaware of both the issues with the intelligence and the failings of the Army. And that is discounting the political dysfunction between Left and Right that would continue up to the fall of the Third Republic.

I could be blatant here and draw a detailed parallel between this crisis and the United States in 2003, but I assume that you are intelligent to draw it yourself.)
2. Governments in democracies cannot afford ignorant or, worse, misled and deluded publics. "Uneducated opinion cannot easily or rapidly be changed unless the people can see the reasons clearly for themselves..." (Emmerson, 1977) and, as we ourselves have seen, in a rapidly changing and complex world and one in which governments themselves increasingly use their servile "news media" to obscure and mislead the public rather than to clarify matters for it this clarity can be difficult or impossible to find and ignorance a Sisyphean task to reduce.

How many U.S. citizens still think that Saddam was behind 9/11?

3. A nation whose economy is not fundamentally sound - and whose economic levers will not be used - cannot long endure as a power. By returning to the gold standard in the midst of the Great Depression France effectively hamstrung herself and that weakness was reflected in her inability to respond decisively to Winterübung. Whether incapacitated by fiscal bureaucrats or by larcenous banksters, a polity that can't respond to economic hardships also cannot respond to political troubles.



Despite the lack of combat, the "battle" for the Rhineland action was a crucial step towards the coming war. Without the leverage of the demilitarized zone the last check on Germany power crafted by Versailles was removed. Though few people in the Europe of the time, the sound of the boots across the Rhine bridges in 1936 was the distant thunder of the storm three years to come.