Monday, July 29, 2024

Decisive Battles: Frontiers 1914 - Part 2: Keep The Right Wing Strong

 Last time we looked - very briefly! - at the geopolitical buildup to August 1914. 


The tl:dr version is that:
1) Europe in the waning years of the 19th and the opening of the 20th Centuries was a cross-cutting tangle of alliances meant to reassure the major powers that they wouldn't be isolated in a Great Power war.

2) These included:
a) Germany and Austria-Hungary, a peculiar and one-sided arrangement that seems to have persisted because i) Austria needed German economic and military strength, while ii) Germany needed SOMEbody to be their pals, and the Austrians were that desperate.
b) Italy and the Ottomans were kind of strap-hanging on to the Austro-German alliance, but i) Italy was pretty much the definition of "not really a Power" AND pretty much hated the Austrians, while ii) the Ottomans weren't useful for much of anything in Europe AND were pretty much "The Sick Man" they're conventionally portrayed.
c) On the "other side" were France and Russia, forced into an arranged marriage when Germany dumped Russia and France was looking for help to offset its economic and demographic weakness vis-a-vis Germany.
d) Great Britain wasn't really sold on all this Continental dick-waving, but i) had patched things up with France because of concerns about Kaiser Wilhelm's idiotic Navy fetish, and ii) had an arrangement with Belgium, who, sensibly given the aggro dudebros all around, had declared their absolute neutrality on the whole Franco-German pissing contest.

3) When the political crisis in the Balkans that exploded at the end of June (and, remember, Franz Ferdinand was just the final spark; the problems between Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Russia, the Ottomans, as well as the Balkan minorities within and without the Austrian borders, had been festering for decades) the immediate military concerns of the various powers were (in alphabetical order):

Austria-Hungary: defeating Serbia before the Russians could mobilize and threaten the northern regions of Bohemia and Moravia (in what are now the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and Galicia (in modern Poland):

By ArdadN - Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5867649


France: A German invasion (I know - it was that simple, but not easy...)

Great Britain: Kind of nothing, at first. France versus Germany? Not their problem, tho I'm sure Herb Asquith and Downing Street were giving the HochSeeFlotte the side-eye just in case...

Italy: Not happy to be dragged into a European war by the fucking Austrians (bastardos!) over some damn thing in the Balkans. 

(This eventually led to Italian reneging on their Central Power-alliance commitment, BTW.)

Ottoman Empire: Kind of wanted to slap Russia, but the overall involvement was a fuckup. Turkish  historian Kemal Kaspat summed it up as follows:

“Ottoman entry into the war was not the consequence of careful preparation and long debate in the parliament (which was recessed) and press. It was the result of a hasty decision by a handful of elitist leaders who disregarded democratic procedures, lacked long-range political vision, and fell easy victim to German machinations and their own utopian expectations of recovering the lost territories in the Balkans."

 So, yeah, kind of a fuckup.

Russia: Fulfillment of promises to the Slavic nationalists in the Balkans, as well as a fear of Austro-German attacks from Galicia and East Prussia.

Great Power Chess: Germany Moves First

Of the Powers Germany was in what appeared to be the scariest military position.

Everyone else had a border to worry about, but Germany had two; in the East against Russia, in the West, France.

(Technically so did Austria-Hungary. But the Serbians were feisty, not insane, so they weren't coming at Vienna. Russia? Ohfuckyes.)

The Eastern German border around what is today Poland was 1) open geographically - rivers (and other water bodies like marshes and lakes) were the only real defensible obstacles - and 2) perfect for the "mass effect" of Russian attacks. 

The whole "Russian Steamroller" was a thing for a reason.

German war planning, then, had to either figure out a way to fight a modern, dangerous French Army in the West while simultaneously facing a monster Russian invasion from the East, or...

Strike quickly and decisively on one front, defeat that enemy, then turn to the other side of Germany to beat the other.

Meaning that in the 1914 war chess game Germany was playing white and had to move first.

When you look up at the whole "Eastern border" description you can see why that move also had to be to the West. Russia had bodies and ground to lose and keep fighting; trying to force a Russian "Sedan 1870" was a mug's game. If beat along the border the Russians would just take their lickings and fall back into the vast expanse of western Russia.

France couldn't. Simple distances show why:

So prewar German planning (after the lapse of the Reinsurance Treaty pretty much ensured a two-front war) was based on:
1) German mobilization - both troop formation and rail transport to the forward railheads - running more quickly that either France or Russia's,
2) Fighting delaying actions in East Prussia, while
3) Attacking France and knocking it out of the war ASAP.

But.

How to do this?

Because the French knew what had to happen as well as Germany did, and had the advantage of knowing where it was coming from: the former pieces of France grabbed in 1871, Alsace and Lorraine.


Le système Séré de Rivières

After the debacle of 1870 the French Government formed a committee to develop a defensive barrier to the next foreign (presumably German) invasion. The Wiki entry has a nice summary of this:

"France created the Defence Committee (Comité de défense), which was active between 1872 and 1888, whose mission was to reorganize the defence of the French frontiers and coasts. It was necessary to compensate for the lost territories of the north-east; to modernise old fortifications, which had been shown to be wanting in the last war and to create new fortifications proof against modern weaponry using new and more powerful explosives."

This organization oversaw the creation of the fortifications known as the "Séré de Rivières" system after the engineer officer who ran the committee from 1874 to 1880.

These forts ran the length of France's northern and eastern borders, but were densest (and strongest) in the northeastern corner along the Franco-German frontier:

Note that this wasn't intended as a wall, but more like a sabo dam; separated blocking points with corridors between them that would funnel attackers (the green arrows in the cartoon above) where they could be engaged by the French maneuver forces and defeated.

Now...mind you, by 1914 this system had a big problem, and I do mean BIG...

The development of superheavy artillery like this Krupp 420mm howitzer meant that the forts couldn't defend themselves; typical fortress guns ran in the 75mm to 155mm caliber.

The 155mm 155 "L de Bange" design from 1877 was the heaviest artillery the de Rivieres forts mounted, with a maximum range of about 13,000 meters.

The superheavies' maximums ran from 8-9,000 meters up to 14-20,000, and they were semi-mobile (though slow to emplace and displace) which meant that even when they didn't outrange the fortress batteries they were difficult to hit without forward observation. 

The forts had no such benefits.

Still, even outdated, the de Rivieres forts presented some difficulties to a German assault that depended on speed. The monster cannon meant that even the strongest fortification could be destroyed or taken. But that would take time, and time wasn't on Germany's side.

So we're back to where we were when we talked about sieges. The only ways to crack the walls was over - escalade - through - breaching or treachery - or under - mining. All took too much time or too many lives.

The alternative is obvious when you look at it.

Around.

If you attack where the forts aren't, they can't slow or stop you.

Which is where we meet this guy:

A Man, A Plan, A Strong Right Wing...Schlieffen!

Alfred von Schlieffen (1833-1911) was a Prussian of Prussia, son of a major in the 19th Century Prussian Army. The only unusual part of the junior von Schlieffen story is his choice to skip the more usual cadet school route to a commission for the University of Berlin.

Instead Alfred chose the Einjährig-Freiwilliger ("One-Year Volunteer") option, which the von Schlieffen Wiki entry kind of messes up.

The volunteer system - let's use the common shorthand "EF" for it - was a way for wealthy and/or aristocratic types to shortcut the officer training program. You came in like a regular draftee, but 1) only for one year as opposed to two or three, and 2) paid for everything yourself. The EF Wiki entry is much better at describing this:

"...would opt to serve a one-year term rather than the regular two or three-year conscription term, and who would be allowed a free choice of service branch and unit, but who were obliged to equip and support themselves at their own expense throughout. In today's monetary value this cost might equate to at least 10,000 Euros, which restricted the option to members of the affluent social classes, considered to be "officer material", who hoped to pursue a Reserve-Officer career path."
Instead of the reserves, von Schlieffen was tapped for a regular officer career and started the Kriegsakademie - the Prussian Sandhurst or St. Cyr - in 1858 and was commissioned three years later in the topographic bureau of the Generalstabs, the Prussian General Staff.

A very Prussian officer career followed. War service in 1866 against Austria (including the Battle of Koniggratz, which I should really write up someday) and in France in 1870. 

Advancement through the ranks, although I get the sense that his superiors kind of saw him as a Big Military Brain - Schlieffen got a lot of staff postings under the Prussian (and Imperial German) flagpole - so more staff than troop unit time.

By 1886 he was a two-star Generalmajor, a three-star Generalleutnant by 1888 and in 1891 nicked the top Army job, Chief of the General Staff.

This meant von Schlieffen had tremendous influence on German military policy...but not alone. Ian Senior's 2012 work Invasion 1914 has a good breakdown of the forces in play in the Imperial war planning arena. 

These included Schlieffen as Chief of Staff, but also the Prussian Ministry for War (Preußisches Kriegsministerium), the three-star corps commanders (all 23 of them), and of course the Emperor and the Imperial "War Cabinet".

You need to keep this in mind, because it plays a huge part in the "Schlieffen Plan" story. 

Because there were plans, and then there were budgets, and though Schlieffen could make the former the Minister for War had control of the latter.

So a lot of Schlieffen's "planning" had to do with shaking Reichsmarks out of the Minister and the rest of the Imperial machinery, including the Emperor, the Cabinet, and the Reichstag - all of whom had their own objectives.

Ch-ch-ch-changes

When he set his ass behind the Chief's desk in 1891 Schlieffen inherited a general war plan that (to sum it up briefly) anticipated two fronts, Russia and France, and doped out a quick strike to the East that would catch the Russians still mobilizing and grab some land and cash to use negotiating a favorable peace. 

In the West, though, the de Rivieres forts ruled out an aggressive move. The plans prescribed a defensive fight to pull the French Army out of their fortified lines where they could be counterattacked and defeated.

Schlieffen haaaated this, both because he was an aggro kind of guy and because he wanted to win outright rather than depend on the tricksy machinations of politicians and diplomats. Senior (2012) details his work through the process of changing up the general war plan between 1891 and 1906.

He changed to defense in the East, for all the reasons we've detailed (plus improvements in the Russian defense lines around East Prussia).

Then planned that the attack would come in the West, where the Rhine armies would be heavily weighted-up to include the new superheavy artillery to crack the fort problem. Schlieffen counted on a quick victory there (somehow) and then the efficiency of the German rail system to transfer forces East to hold off the Russian hordes.

But.

The fort problem in the West remained difficult. Senior (2012) explains: "...in 1894 he briefly toyed with the idea of outflanking the fortress belt to the north of Verdun while at the same time pinning down the French center by means of an attack on Nancy, but reluctantly came to the conclusion that he did not have enough men for both tasks...in 1897...he returned to the theme..."

The major problems with these schemes were manpower and movement. One solution was that Schlieffen wanted more maneuver forces, up to seven full Armeekorps. The Minister for War repeated replied not just no but fuck no.

The other issue was the rough and close terrain along the area along the Alsace-Lorraine frontier "north of Verdun"; few or no rail lines; small, narrow roads and not many of those. The area was okay for defense, not so much for a major attack.

That's probably what got Schlieffen thinking that the way to go was around, not through.

Specifically, around France through Luxembourg, Belgium, and (he'll get there) Holland.

This first emerged in the 1899 plan set.

The plan - and these things were called "Aufmarsch" (deployment) plans, more a general set of instructions for the who went where than what a modern GI would consider an "operations order" - called for a big right-wing swing up through Belgium, and Luxembourg. It was still relatively modest but you can see Schlieffen already thinking "big enveloping hook".

So that's where things still stood in 1904.

Then several pieces of news arrived. The French extended the fortress lines to the northwest, past the Franco-German border towards Belgium and Luxembourg. 

Russia, meanwhile, was getting handed its ass by Japan.

That spring Schlieffen mounted up his boys for his semiannual "staff ride" along the Western frontiers. Apparently this was his thing; he'd trot around the prospective engagement areas, throwing out ideas and asking his staff pogues to snipe at them. 

It sounds like it was all very taxing and saddle-sore-ass-wearying, but it was Schlieffen's way of testing his ideas.


The 1904 ride produced Aufmarsch I (West) in 1905; what we think of when we think "Schlieffen Plan";  big sweep - seven full Armies - through Belgium and the dangly bit of southeastern Holland. These heroes would strike west deep into central Belgium then hook back south and east into France to trap the presumed French offensive that would have rammed into the Metz/Rhine region of the Franco-German border.

This was the plan Schlieffen tossed out to his staff in his final staff ride, and invited three staffers to take swings at it. Senior (2012) discusses this ride in detail (p. 32-34), but the tl:dr is that in Schlieffen's mind, anyway, his "big sweep" plan beat the three opponents' rebuttals. It was a war-winner. 

The "final version" emerged as what's called the "GroBe Denkschrift" ("Great Memorandum") distributed after Schlieffen's retirement, in January, 1906.

The basic idea was that a huge portion of the German Army would be committed to the West, leaving the East to a small defensive force to delay the (presumably lagging) Russian advance. 

Then a huge portion of the Western force - 71 of a possible 81 divisions, including a ginormous assembly of Reserve ("Ersatz") Armeekorps to be raised on mobilization - would drive through the Dutch "Maastricht Appendix", Belgium, and Luxembourg, turning the French left and then looping in behind the Franco-German border - ideally west of Paris - to crush the French Army between the swinging German left wing hammer and the German right wing that would  buttressed by the German border fortress belt anvil.


The "conventional narrative" then goes on to detail a series of gradual modifications to Schlieffen's original all-or-nothing left-wing sweep effected under the aegis of Schlieffen's successor, Helmuth Johannes Ludwig Graf von Moltke (usually referred to as "Moltke the Younger"), particularly:

1) Refusal to cross the Dutch border. (Moltke explained that a hostile Holland would close the Rhine ports, "closing Germany's windpipe", as well as possibly opening a debarkation point for British troops),

2) Strengthening the left wing by pulling one right-wing army out to double the size of the left, and then

3) Further weakening the right wing by pulling out more troops to reinforce East Prussia in 1914.

Supposedly these modifications collectively doomed the actual invasion by denuding the German right of enough force to accomplish its mission. Hence the repetition of the apocryphal Schlieffen deathbed admonition "Keep the right wing strong!" and the conventional "wisdom" that the unmodified Schlieffen Plan would have succeeded.

There's a good discussion of this "narrative" tradition in the "Civilization Fanatics Center" blog by someone named "Dachs" out of Russia. 

 (I know nothing about this guy, or his intent in posting the piece. It's still a useful analysis, so, spasiba.)

Apparently the "narrative" appeared in the early post-WW1 period, among historians and military theorists like Basil Liddell-Hart, and was amplified in the aftermath of WW2, principally in a 1958 book by Gerhard Ritter, Schlieffen Plan, Critique of a Myth

The Ritter book centers on a series of previously unpublished drafts of the 1905 memo, and it reflected his take on Imperial German militarism, which "Dachs" summarizes as:

"Schlieffen's militarism precluded any discussion of whether invading Belgium and the Netherlands was morally or legally correct, and instead sent a million men headlong into infamy on the grounds of national interest and winning the war. His uniquely German sense of precision had timed the campaign so exactingly - down to the hour, as Ritter had it - and demanded that France be defeated in forty-two days, so as to turn on Russia before it could mobilize its own armies."

But.

"Dachs" then runs down the subsequent scholarship of the 1914 invasion, including the work of Terence Zuber's 1999 The Schlieffen Plan Reconsidered, which posited that the 1905 drafts Ritter relied on and the supposed "ideal" 1906 Denkschrift "plan" were, in fact; 

"...relics of that omnipresent feature of army politics, a budget debate. Schlieffen wanted more troops and more money to hire them with, so he drew up the "war plan" employing a number of soldiers outlandishly higher than anything the Germans could employ in 1905 in order to demonstrate how kickass the German military could be if the Reichstag would but give it the cash necessary to implement Schlieffen's vision. Explaining it as an actual war plan, Zuber said, made no sense."

Among the other "Schlieffen skeptics" Martin van Creveld's work on the logistical issues which we discussed in the Battle of the Marne piece suggested that:

"...an attack through Belgium simply could not have incorporated the numbers of troops Schlieffen envisioned in Ritter's memo, even in peacetime...van Creveld argued that if Moltke had dispatched more men to the right flank, they would have just been an extra drain on already-overstretched supply lines, and the Germans might have run out of steam even before they reached the Marne."

In conclusion, "Dachs" says: "What does it mean for European diplomacy if Germany's war plan was not always predicated on a war with both Russia and France, or an offensive against France? The Sonderweg and the Griff nach der Weltmacht (NB: two schools of thought regarding the connection between German geopolitical thinking and the resulting aggressive military adventures) have been generally disproven, for various reasons (which I might go into in another history article). But that does not mean there is a dominant interpretation to replace them. So the state of historiography on the period today: many voices, but no chorus."

 


Okay, then...so what? What does all this mean?

So.

The bottom line seems to be that, regardless of the details of operations or the geopolitical intent, the German 1914 war plan called for 1) a defensive posture along the Franco-German border coupled with 2) a big hook through Belgium - with the implied acceptance of that triggering a British declaration of war and a British Expeditionary Force landing on the Channel Coast - to avoid the fortress belt and round the west end of the French (and British) defenses.

The right-wing armies would then "roll up" the Allied defenses from the northwest most quick smart, forcing evacuation of the Verdun/Toul/Epinal/Nancy fortresses and - presumably - capitulation.

To do that, the German reconnaissance elements had to be sure to find that open flank, while the security elements along the French border had to keep the Deuxeme Bureau from spying out weak points in the German defensive lines.

So cooked down to general mission tasks, based on the actual 1914 Aufmarsch, the job(s) of the German reconnaissance and security/counter-reconnaissance elements looked something like this:

1. Due west of the northern start lines - the central Belgian plateau from roughly the fringes of Antwerp to the areas around the French fortress town of Maubeuge - the primary mission was reconnaissance. The commanders of the German First and Second Army needed to know where their enemies were - and, even more importantly, weren't - to ensure the right wing sweep was wide enough to net their catch.

These areas were complicated by the "big-picture/small-picture" range of information needed. The overall German commanders - Moltke and the Emperor and his War Cabinet - needed long-range planning intelligence. Meaning well ahead of the forward infantry strength so those march columns could be routed or re-routed to envelop the Allied troop units.

The individual Army commanders (Kluck with First, Bulow with Second) also needed tactical intelligence, though, in order to figure out their most effective course of action for engaging those Allied units.

Overall, this was the trickiest and most recon-asset-consuming part of the theater.

2. To the southeast - west of Luxembourg, mostly in and around the Argonne Forest - the mission was more complicated. It still had a reconnaissance component, but that was more for the tactical and local needs of Third and Fourth Armies rather than the strategic recon needs of the first two armies. 

And in that area the German cavalry and light infantry would need to screen out French (and/or British) recon teams to prevent the premature discovery of the "hinge" in the German line.

3. Furthest to the southeast - ahead of the Fifth, Sixth, and Seventh Armies along the Franco-German border - the primary task was screening, fighting off French cavalry and their light infantry recon units to mask any potential weak points in the German defenses and keep the anvil together until the hammer could strike.

We're going to get deep in the weeds of "who's doing all this stuff", be before that we're going to look at the Other Side of The Hill; France, and its war plans that all this strong-right-wing-ing was intended to unhinge and knock sideways.

Next: I Got XVII Plans But the Krauts Got One

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Decisive Battles: Frontiers 1914 - Part 1: How Did We Get Here?

This entry is a bit unusual in the "Battles" series, so let me take a moment to discuss my intentions.


The Beginnings:

The origins of this series go back over a decade, to the 2009 piece on the 1914 First Battle of the Marne

In the course of researching and writing that article my attention was drawn to the tactical issues that arose from both combatants' mis- (or lack of) understanding of their opponents. A lot of the "whys" of the Marne ran directly from the failure of strategic and/or tactical reconnaissance.

To make a long story short (and for the long story the linked Marne piece is worth a look) German operational success required knowing where the left end of the Entente' line ended (in order to envelop it), while the Entente' needed to prevent that and to figure out where and what the German right wing was doing.

Neither side really accomplished either of their reconnaissance or security objectives, and the result was the chaotic collision that we call the Marne.

The question that I kept coming back to was...why not?

Was the problem baked into the larger operational or even the strategic planning? 

Was this the result of both sides' failure to anticipate the tactical "facts on the ground" affecting reconnaissance and making plans that assumed conditions that no longer existed?

Or was it technical, the conditions themselves, that had changed beyond the ability of clever plans to account for them? Was the problem that the older means and methods of reconnaissance - horse cavalry and light infantry - and security were just no longer effective in the tactical environment of 1914, and the new techniques - air reconnaissance - un- or under-developed to the point where the commanders didn't receive (or were unable to process) the intelligence?

Those questions just hung out there, unanswered.

The Sequelae:

So for the following years I kind of kept this curiosity in the vest pocket, as it were. Both because I had other engagements I wanted to explore, and because it seemed like a massive and difficult task to research and write.

Slowly, though, I worked through the other "battles" pieces, to the point where I'm down to a mix of the "sort of peripheral interest topics" - that is, stuff I'm only vaguely interested in discussing, like Manzikert (important historically, fairly boring tactically) or Sekigara (important historically, more about treachery and clan rivalries that actual fighting) - or stuff like this, difficult and time-consuming.

I'm retired now, so the "time" component is kind of peripheral. I have the time if I want to use it for this.

And the difficulty?

Well...I decided to go ahead and tackle it, with the understanding that if I try and write this as a single one-off post it would be insane; I'd be writing it and you'd be reading it during the heat-death of the Universe.

So.

The Plan:

I laid this out in the last post. It's to:

Focus is on the reconnaissance and security aspects of the battle(s); specifically,
1) What were the requirements for intelligence, from tactical up to strategic intelligence, (that is, reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance) for the opposing sides plans to succeed. Or in simple terms, what did each commander need to know about his opponent (and need to deny his opponent knowledge of) to achieve their operational objectives?,
1a) Which implies at least a brief discussion of the opposing plans and objectives,
2) What resources were available to the commanders to perform these recon and counter-recon tasks?
3) What recon/counter-recon operations were planned to use those assets in ways to accomplish those tasks, and
4) How well did the opposing organizations and commanders at crafting those plans, and carrying them out?

I'm still working up a frame for this. My guess is that it will include:
1a) a post on the general conditions leading up to August 1914
1b) a post on the German Army and the Revised Schlieffen Plan
1c) a post on the French Army and Plan XVII

2) a post on the recon elements of the opposing forces; cavalry and air assets - number, composition, organization, training and doctrine

3) a post on the opening days of the war - from 1 AUG 1914 to about 21 AUG and the performance of the recon/counter-recon elements during the opening phases

4) a post on the actions on the central portions of the front (Battle of the Ardennes), 21-23 AUG

5) a post on the actions to the west (Mons/ Charleroi) during 21-23 AUG, and

6) a post on "The Great Retreat" and the lead-in to First Marne, 24 AUG-5 SEP.

This is Post 1a, then - taking us up to the plans of the opposing forces that kicked off in August 1914.


So...How DID We Get Here?

The Marne post is a good place to start as a tl:dr version of the lead-up to 1914. The diplomatic and political backstory pretty much comes down to:

1. For a huge portion of the late Medieval and early Modern periods France was the major continental European Great Power. The reasons - political, demographic, economic, and military - were many and varied, but the result was that if there was something going on in the European heartland France usually had a finger (or an arm, or it's whole ass) in it.

2) To the east of the Rhine France's monkey business typically ran into one or more of the German states; Austria first, in the 17th Century, then Austria and Prussia in the 18th, then Prussia in the bulk of the 19th.

3) By the late 19th Century France was the bogeyman and rival of the rising German power of Prussia. Otto Bismarck, the architect of German (as opposed to Prussian) nationhood, used that to herd the cats of the multifarious German statelets into a "German Empire" 

4) This process led to war in 1870, and the resulting French debacle - which we discussed back in 2012 with the Battle of Sedan - and punitive diplomatic settlement of the Treaty of Frankfurt left Germany strutting as the Great Power of mittelEuropa and France stuffed with angry, bitter French itching for revenge.

5) This anger produced a series of French diplomatic maneuvers that forged new connections (with imperial Russia) and broke down old enmities (with Great Britain) that shifted the balance of European power and intensified the dangers of a general European war.

6) While the British were largely driven into the Entente by German naval ambitions (Bob Massie's 1991 work Dreadnought is essential for this) the autocratic imperial Russian government was willing to align with egalitarian republican France for several reasons, not all of them military. 

Russian industrialization had been heavily bankrolled by German investment, which had fallen away as German industry, much of it military, absorbed more and more Reichsmarks. Thrifty France had francs to replace those marks.

As part of his diplomatic planning to keep Germany secure Bismarck had doped up something called the "Reinsurance Treaty" with the Russians (needed after problems between Russia and Germany's ally Austria-Hungary over fuckery in the Balkans had broken up the earlier German-Austrian-Russian Dreikaiserbund). 

The treaty - which was kept secret from both the publics and the national legislatures - promised that the two Powers would stay neutral if the other got into a Great Power war (sorta - it was void if Germany attacked France or Russia attacked Austria-Hungary). Still; it secured much of Russia's western borders and kept the two from giving each other the constant side-eye.

When German Emperor Wilhelm II shitcanned Bismarck in 1888 Bismarck's successors didn't bother to renew the Reinsurance Treaty in 1890. This opened up a can of military and diplomatic worms that the Russians dealt with by looking to France for support, especially as things with Austria-Hungary in the Balkans got ever sketchier.

So as the 20th Century opened Europe had congealed into two major Power axes; one around France and Russia along with Britain - the "Triple Entente" - and the other around Germany and Austria-Hungary along with the Ottomans and notionally Italy, notionally the "Triple Alliance" but commonly termed the "Central Powers".

To me the oddest part of the run-up to war was the German attachment to the ramshackle Hapsburg empire. The German ambassador to Vienna summed up the problem: "...is it worth it to attach ourselves...to this state which is almost falling apart and...continue the exhausting work of pulling it along with us..?"

Because the two couldn't have been more unlike; powerful, efficient, militarized Germany, and struggling, haphazard, obsolescent Austria-Hungary. Why did the German government cling to the Austr0-Hungarians?


Strange Bedfellows

The problems with Austria-Hungary as an ally were;
1) It was a mess politically, a patchwork of ethnicity and polities pasted together by Hapsburg dynastic rule, militarily suspect - its army was likewise divided by language and ethnic incomprehension - and the product of generations of defeats by, most recently, the Germans themselves. The government in Vienna was antiquated and inefficient. But...
2) ...the Royal and Imperial ('konigliche und kaiserliche", usually abbreviated as "k.u.k.") regime in Vienna brought with it an ugly quilt of old quarrels and hostilities; with the small states of the Balkans, with Italy (much of which had been Austrian before unification), with the Ottomans, and with Russia.

The single biggest problem was that the k.u.k. was a 15th Century answer to the question of "how should a state be defined?". 

In 1450 saying "By the ruling house" would have been accepted by the ruled - Hungarians and Croats and Slovaks and Poles regardless of from where that house arose, so for the k.u.k. congeries to exist because it had been a Hapsburg county or dukedom or electorship or bishopric for centuries was generally jake with the locals.

In 1914? No. Nationalism had been rising throughout the 19th Century, Czechs wanted to be Czech, Poles Polish, Bosniaks Bosnian, Hungarians Hungarian. The consensus that had kept the Royal and Imperial domains together was fraying.

So why did many German authorities - the Emperor, ministers, diplomats, politicians - persist in trying their rising power to the falling one?

I get the sense that it was mostly a "what we can get" rather than "the best we can get" sort of settling. Here's Tschirschky, the German ambassador from abive, continuing: "But I cannot see any other constellation that could replace the still-existing advantages in an alliance with the Central European power." 

The problem with that was that the Austrians were not truly a particularly advantageous power and definitely not a controllable one. Germany's prewar Chancellor von Bülow said later that the crucial part of the alliance for Germany was: "...letting Austria drag us, against our will, into a world war." 

Which, of course, it did.


Why?

As I've discussed repeatedly, the reasons for the decisions and acts that led to war are so complex and multivariate as to provide material for decades of academic study and volumes of popular prose, as far beyond the scope of this essay. Ambition, distraction, uglification...hubris, mistakes, fear, anger...and that is as nations, peoples, and governments, leaving out the influence of individual character.

But to me the single biggest factor was the failure - on all sides but particularly in Austria-Hungary - to recognize the changes in warfare that had been going on over the preceding century.

The industrialization and mechanization of combat, and the vastly inflated human and material needs that would demand, had made the artisanal warfare of the 19th Century as quaint and useless as a wooden gearbox inside a cuckoo clock. 

All the major combatants underestimated the effects both on their tactics and strategies as well as their economies, but none so disastrously as Austria-Hungary.

The initial confrontation between Serbia and Austria surely looked to the k.u.k hierarchy like the same old damn thing in the Balkans they'd been doing like, well, forever.

But.

When Russia mobilized in support of Serbia - indeed, the very likelihood that Russia would mobilize - that should have given pause to the Austrians. 

A war with Serbia was one thing (albeit one that went shockingly poorly for Austria, a reminder of how badly the k.u.k Generalstab had prepared for the war...), a war with Russia and, by implication, a general European war, was very, very much another.

The Austrians didn't get that. So, regardless of the danger, the combination of treaty obligations, political calculation, "national honor", error, and miscalculation, brought the major combatants to the start line on 1 AUG 1914, and from there across it into war.

And that's where we're going next; into the war plans of the three nations that were going to collide along the Franco-Belgian borders with Germany, beginning with the German scheme we know as the Schlieffen Plan.

Next: Keep the Right Wing Strong.

Monday, July 15, 2024

Thoughts (and prayers)

Two opposing (or at least offsetting) things can both be true:

Political violence is lethal to democratic republics. Regardless of the target or the cause. Assassinating or assaulting the worst idiotic would-be tinpot dictator (coughTrumpcough) is no better than murdering Abe Lincoln. 

The bottom line is that if the cost of political disagreement is lethal, the wages of disagreement will perforce become violent. No sensible person will continue to oppose lethal force with reasoned argument. Bullets will drive out ballots and campaigns will become "campaigns" in the military meaning of the word.

But.

There's a bright line of fault to this sordid little drama, and it runs direct as a bullet towards the faction so now loudly aggrieved and self-righteous about it.

For generations that "conservative" faction has done everything it can to bring its candidate to this place.

It has single-mindedly fought every sensible effort to prevent people like this shooter from getting to that rooftop (synagogue, grocery store, concert venue, nightclub...) with the tool (military-grade firearms) he needed. 

It pranced around the halls of  legislation sporting adorable little auto-rifle pins on its lapels. Which "well regulated militia" did our boy belong to? Remind me..?

It has doggedly fought to turn our politics into a zero-sum battleground by turning its political opponents into mortal enemies. It has fled from "my distinguished opponent" to "scum", "animals", "traitors", "un-American". It has embraced its country's enemies, foreign and domestic, to win allies against its domestic rivals.

It has made violence the language of its "debate".

Once you've done that, once you've created the climate of anger and hate, once you've mobilized the freikorps of Threepers and Proud Boys, once you've declared open season on your political foes, you've effectively removed the firewall between political speech and political violence.

You've lost your right to be pissy when that violence comes for your guy.

The GOP got us here.

If we allow it, they will take us even further. Look up "Project 2025" if you want to be horrified for the head-on collision of venality, autocracy, and theocracy that the "conservative" faction is jonesing for in this country, and the actual violence it will do to millions of people here.

So this ridiculous drama changes nothing.

Tubby, stitches in his ear or no, is still our Sulla and his faction is our enemy.

And if We the People don't want to be ruled by that faction our path is clear, and it leads to the polling place in November.

It's up to us. As Jim Wright likes to say; if we want a better nation, we need to be better citizens.

Thursday, July 04, 2024

How it's going

 The separation is official.

After forty-odd years of playing by the rules and doing my best to be a good man, good husband, and good father I'm typing this alone in a shitty apartment on the not-ironically-named Independence Day.

I don't really know what I can say about that except, well, shit.

At this point there's not much I can do except tuck my chin and drive on and hope the shit-rain will stop falling. I'm already lonely despite the kind offers of companionship from my friends. Let's face it; when you're married - if it's a good marriage - your spouse is your companion and best friend. 

So when they kick you to the curb? That kinda tears out the heart of your social life, too.

That leaves me to contemplate the work of rebuilding my life in my late sixties, and that's a pretty ugly thought.

While all around my the nation I grew up in grows ever smaller and meaner, less forgiving, more rapacious and greedy. The New Gilded Age Project advances daily, as We the People debate whether it's okay or not to throw people, rich and poor alike, in prison for stealing bread and sleeping under bridges.

It's hard for me to be optimistic.

I used to call myself an "optipess"; happy in my own life while grim looking around me.

Well, that happy life lies in ruins about my feet, so the landscape is looking pretty fucking grim as far as my eyes can see. And it's increasingly likely that a plurality of shitpokes and the antiquated structural flaws of the First Constitution will hand me an openly fascist America First nation eighty years too late for that old Nazi Charles Lindbergh.

 Well.

There's nothing I can do but, as I said, fuck it and drive on.

What does that mean for this blog?

Well, first, my long radio silence is over.

For months I've had nothing to say outside a string of curses at the unfairness of life. Well, divorce, like hanging, occupies the mind thoroughly but once it happens, well, it's over. The griefs remain left behind, but the sound and fury dies down, and the still small voice can be heard again.

Mind you, fuck-all if I'm gonna write about politics. That shit's worse than ever. 

No, my plan for the summer is to work up to a series of posts about The Battle of the Frontiers, 1914.

My focus is on the reconnaissance and security aspects of the battle(s); specifically,
1) What were the requirements for intelligence, from tactical up to strategic intelligence, (that is, reconnaissance and counter-reconnaissance) for the opposing sides plans to succeed. Or in simple terms, what did each commander need to know about his opponent (and need to deny his opponent knowledge of) to achieve their operational objectives?,
1a) Which implies at least a brief discussion of the opposing plans and objectives,
2) What resources were available to the commanders to perform these recon and counter-recon tasks?
3) What recon/counter-recon operations were planned to use those assets in ways to accomplish those tasks, and
4) How well did the opposing organizations and commanders at crafting those plans, and carrying them out?

I'm still working up a frame for this. My guess is that it will include:
a) a post on the general conditions leading up to August 1914
b) a post on the German Army and the Revised Schlieffen Plan
c) a post on the French Army and Plan XVII
d) a post on the recon elements of the opposing forces; cavalry and air assets - number, composition, organization, training and doctrine
e) a post on the opening days of the war - from 1 AUG 1914 to about 21 AUG and the performance of the recon/counter-recon elements during the opening phases
f) a post on the actions on the central portions of the front (Battle of the Ardennes), 21-23 AUG
g) a post on the actions to the west (Mons/ Charleroi) 21-23 AUG, and
h) a post on "The Great Retreat" and the lead-in to First Marne, 24 AUG-5 SEP.

That's gonna be a big task, and I hope to have everything lined up ready to go by next week.

Thoughts?